A funny thing happened to Pedro Alvarez on the way to catch a bus last night. His life changed. With one cell phone call from Pirates GM Neil Huntington, the 2nd overall pick of the 2008 MLB draft officially went from AAA Indianapolis,  to the major leagues. Well, at least to the AAAA team in Pittsburgh. You know, the low-budget bunch that has lost more games than they have won for the last 17 years? Currently, the Pirates are 18 games under .500 and losers of 9 straight games. Alvarez was so excited when he got the call, he even offered to drive to the Steel City that minute. While most people try to run from burning buildings, this kid is eager to race his way inside and save the day. Huntington assured him a plane was already ordered. The fire he is heading into will be waiting regardless of the mode of transportation.

So, it all begins for the 23 year-old projected cornerstone of the new Pirate foundation. The man expected to launch many a pitched ball over the Clemente wall andinto the Allegheny River. Or at least the guy that hopes to help tie the tourniquet on this nearly two-decade wound. Bucco prospects Jose’ Tabata, Neil Walker, Andrew McCutchen and Brad Lincoln arrived on the scene first and are applyng pressure to it, but the blood still gushes.

The only question about the big slugger out of Vanderbilt University is his defense. He’s already committed 11 errors this year. However, there’s no question about his pedigree at the plate. As a corner infielder or outfielder, power numbers are critical to the success of any big-league batting lineup. Alvarez, while unproven at the big league level, is a power and production prototype. The particularly tantalizing scenario is the prospect of what he might do to the 21-ft wall in right field at PNC Park–andthe seats directly behind it. The last great hope to do damage in that way was Adam LaRoche. A free-agent the Pirates invested millions in but received pennies in return. While skilled defensively, Laroche flopped as a run producer and the big flies he contributed were cancelled out by a batting average only Mario Mendoza would be proud of.

Alvarez speaks softly, saying the right things, but carries a big stick. Hitting .277 with 13 Hr and 53 RBI. His likely spot in the batting order will be somewhere in the 5th or 6th slot and he will hopefully make 3rd base his home for a long time. Not since Jeff King in the early 90s have the Pirates had a legitimate hot-corner man with the power and production potential of Alvarez. King had a pretty nice career unfolding with the Pirates until back problems shortened it. He was a productive member of the Bucs during their last division winning clubs in 1990-92.

                                   The current Bucs third-baseman, Andy LaRochehas been a disappointment. He flirted with success, but injuries and a lack of power doomed him and hastened Alvarez’ arrival. Larochehas been waiting for this moment like someone on death row. It was just a matter of time. Tonight, the Bucs final 2010 curtain call up takes the stage.  And the hope in Pittsburgh is that everyone will eventually be voting for Pedro–as a starting infielder for the National League All-Stars in the near future. 

Here we are yet again in 2010. Another sport, another draft, and another highly anticipated draft class that has to meet those overbearingly high expectations of the scouts and GM’s around Major League Baseball. While I love the sport of baseball inwards and out, I also love the memorabilia that keeps the history alive for years to come. Some of these young men will sign soon and be sent off to start their career. And the others; they will wait and wait and wait until their agent gives them the go ahead to grab a pen. Look a little closer around the internet and you may notice that they have already done that very thing. Here are the top 10 Draft Picks of the 2010 MLB Draft along with links to their memorabilia already hitting the market.

1. Bryce Harper - Washington Nationals - College of Southern Nevada - MLB.com Draft Report - The Bryce Harper story is well-documented at this point. Just 17 and in junior college, he’s gotten as much hype as any Draft prospect not named Strasburg. For the most part, he’s lived up to it in his first college season, showing incredible hitting and power skills. He’s moved around on the field and has plus arm strength from anywhere, though most would like to see him catch. The only questions that seem to remain with Harper is if he’ll go No. 1 overall and then, if he’ll sign.

2. Jameson Taillon - Pittsburgh Pirates - The Woodlands HS (TX) - MLB.com Draft Report - Taillon is the complete package in a high school pitcher, with tremendous size, stuff and a feel for pitching. He has three plus pitches in his fastball, slider and curve. Even his changeup, while not used that much, is solid. He uses his size to his advantage and has tremendous mound presence. As impressive as his stuff is, his makeup might be even better. A commitment to Rice might sound intriguing, but if he goes at the top of the first round, and everything points to that happening, it likely won’t be an issue.

3. Manny Machado - Baltimore Orioles - Brito Miami Private School (FL) - MLB.com Draft Report - Machado entered the season as the top high school position player and has done nothing to diminish that evaluation. Big and athletic, he can do just about everything on the baseball field, with the ability to hit for plenty of average and some power as he matures. He has more than enough arm to play shortstop and is fine there for now, though there is some concern he’ll outgrow the position. Even if he does, he’d be just fine at third, both in terms of handling the position defensively and providing the kind of offense teams look for at the hot corner. Regardless of his position, Machado is primed to be one of the earliest names taken off the board in June.

4. Christian Colon - Kansas City Royals - Cal State - Fullerton - MLB.com Draft Report - A big prospect since high school, there’s a lot to like about Colon’s game. He has a solid approach and setup at the plate and he makes the plays in the field. His individual tools don’t grade out well, and some think he’ll need to move to second as a pro. He was the captain of Team USA last summer and put up big numbers as well. He hadn’t done that in the early going of his junior season and this is a performance-based industry, so that could hurt his draft stock a little. Even if he doesn’t pick it up, his past performance, makeup and baseball acumen should help ensure he doesn’t wait too long to hear his name called.

5. Drew Pomeranz - Cleveland Indians - Ole Miss - MLB.com Draft Report - Pomeranz has established himself as the top lefty arm in a Draft class that hasn’t got a deep the southpaw pool. Big, strong and durable, he has the makings of an above-average three-pitch mix. He commands his fastball and breaking ball very well, and, while the changeup is a bit behind, it’s improving quickly. There’s little not to like about Pomeranz — most criticisms are on the nit-picky side — and it seems likely that he’ll hear his name called very early on Draft Day.

6. Barret Loux - Arizona Diamond Backs - Texas A&M - MLB.com Draft Report - With his performances this spring, Loux is quickly moving up draft charts. The big right-hander has four pitches he uses, though it’s his fastball and plus changeup that really stand out. His breaking stuff needs some tightening, but with his command, mound presence and easy delivery, there’s reason to believe he can improve that part of his game as well. Before the season began, most Texas college pitching buzz went to Brandon Workman, but Loux has forced his way to the top of that conversation and likely into the first couple of rounds.

7. Matt Harvey - New York Mets - North Carolina - MLB.com Draft Report - Once a top high school prospect, Harvey has reclaimed his status as a first-round candidate with a resurgent junior season. The delivery problems that had him so off his game as a sophomore have largely been corrected, though there are still some issues there that can effect his command and ability to throw his breaking ball. Still, Harvey was showing an above-average to plus fastball and maintaining his velocity, to go along with glimpses of good breaking stuff and a feel for a change. He’s come a long way this season, and he likely won’t have to wait too long to be redrafted.

8. Delino Deshields Jr - Houston Astros - Woodward Academy (GA) - MLB.com Draft Report - DeShields has two things really working in his favor: his plus speed and his bloodlines. His dad of the same name spent many years in the big leagues, and the hope is that the younger DeShields could be a similar type of player. He does have the potential to be a very good hitter and puts his speed to use on the basepaths. He has more than enough range to handle center field and the hands to play second if a team wanted to give that a look. Scouts have had a hard time getting a consistent read on DeShields. He’s toolsy and seems like he’ll fall right into the old risk vs. reward debate. It seems likely a team will be willing to take the plunge at some point not too deep into the Draft.

9. Karsten Whitson - San Diego Padres - Chipley HS (FL) - MLB.com Draft Report - It’s looking like a pretty strong year for high school arms, and Whitson should be near the top in any discussion about them. He’s already big, strong and durable and he has plenty of projection, meaning he might throw harder than his already mid-90s fastball. Add in a plus breaking ball and good changeup and he has a very intriguring three-pitch mix already. Some tweaks to his delivery could make him even more dangerous. There might be a right-hander or two ahead of Whitson on the high school depth chart, but he should figure into high Draft pick conversations come June.

10. Michael Choice - Oakland Athletics - University of Texas - Arlington - MLB.com Draft Report - In a year that lacks a ton of big-name college hitters, players from smaller programs like Choice have a chance to shine, and he is taking advantage. Though he’ll need work on his swing mechanics, he has big-time raw power to all fields. He runs well and plays a strong outfield to boot. He may not be the elite hitter clubs seek, but since there aren’t many of those this year, teams may look hard at Choice in the early going.

The Florida Marlins have signed first baseman Doug Mientkiewicz to a minor league deal according to Matt Eddy of Baseball America.  Mientkiewicz only had 20 plate appearances in 2009 due to shoulder surgery in April of the ‘09 season.  The Los Angeles Dodgers had re-signed Mientkiewicz to a minor league deal in December of last year, but asked for his release after not making the team.  He also turned town a number of coaching opportunities from Major League and Independent League teams.  Mientkiewicz has also spent time with Minnesota, Boston, Kansas City, the New York Mets, the New York Yankees, Pittsburgh and the Los Angeles Dodgers.

The hunt for October is on.  All the MLB contenders are gearing up for the playoff stretch drive. The Twins and Tigers are in a battle for the AL Central.  There’s a wild card race in the NL West between San Francisco and Colorado. The Cardinals, Dodgers and Anaheim are all in. And there’s a couple of other teams in the playoffs you may have heard of–The Yankees and Red Sox.

But for fans of the Pittsburgh Pirates, the hunt for April is in the works. After watching their team lose 23 of their last 27 games, the only thing that Pittsburgh fans have to look forward to now is Steeler Sunday.  They play the Bengals this weekend in the Queen City.  Most Steeler fans know every Steeler player. They know their uniform numbers, their kids’ names and when they are due for their next vaccinations. A healthy lot of them can even spell Roethlisberger.  But ask a Pittsburgher about the Pirates lineup and he or she might reply “Who Dey?”  The misery culminated in the closing of the upper deck in last Thursday’s loss to the Reds. To be fair, the G-20 Summit held in the city last week had a lot to do with the sparse crowd,  as a lot of people stayed away from the security nightmare in town and at PNC Park.  So,  on Thursday, Pirate management passed out leaflets to fans who were holding upper level seats that read “please enjoy a seat upgrade, courtesy of The Pirates.” G-thanks?

17 straight seasons of losing.  The longest modern day streak in all the 4 major sports. Before that, the Philadelphia Phillies held the record by themselves with 16 from 1933-48.  In the other sports, the Vancouver Canucks and Sacramento/Kansas City Kings each had stretches of 15, and those other Buccaneers–in Tampa did it for 14 consecutive years.  They had the unique distinction of losing the first 26 NFL games they played over two seasons in 1976-77. Their first coach was the late John McKay, an affable character who was the owner of a classic collection of post-game quotes.  The most famous was after a loss in which his team turned the ball over repeatedly and committed several penalties. A reporter asked, “What do you think about your team’s execution?”  McKay replied, “I’m all for it.”  Pirates skipper John Russell can relate.

For many small market baseball teams like the Pirates, proper execution is founded in the front office. In the scouting department and in the development of players drafted by the organization. It can be done. The Marlins, Twins, Oakland A’s and Cleveland Indians have had success.  They have had success because their plans were executed properly. They build a good talent base in the draft, make a couple good trades, then add quality free agents when they are close to contending. That is where the Pirates franchise has failed miserably for almost 20 years. The stink starts at the bottom and works its way up from there. And because they never get close to contending, the quality free agent door is marked exit only.  Who would have ever thought a team once filled with talent like Andy Van Slyke, Barry Bonds, Bobby Bonilla and Doug Drabek could ever spiral into a tailspin like this?

It is not as difficult as it seems. Especially when you have an owner (Bob Nutting) who claims to have a passion for winning, but for years hired scouts on the cheap, let good ones get away,  and let a minor league system fester.  It was only recently (last year) that he made a commitment to developing Latin American ballplayers by funding an academy in the Dominican Republic. That gold mine was left unattended for years. Makes you wonder if he had a sudden revelation, or are his books now being more scrutinized by MLB brass? The rules of revenue sharing from larger market/salaried teams to smaller ones are clear. They state that the receiving owners must put that money into the baseball operation of their franchises, not in the sock drawer of their triple dressers.  If CSI had a Pittsburgh chapter, it would love picking this one apart.  Time will tell if new team President Frank Coonley and GM Neil Huntington will make their plan work. They decided to rip the whole rickety house down and rebuild it. Habitat For Humanity would have helped, but they didn’t have enough volunteers for a job that size.

Obviously there is a financial gap the size of George Steinbrenner’s bank account separating the Big “haves” from the have-nots. That cannot be ignored.  And without a salary cap, big market teams can buy who they want, when they want. And come trade deadline time, they pick away at the rotting carcasses of the weak. But there is still no excuse for being so bad for so long.  The Tampa Bay Rays proved that through smart drafting and scouting, you can be in a position to contend. Then you can pounce on a few free agents and draw your sling back and aim it at the big boys. They were American League Champions last year with a finishing payroll in the 60 million dollar range.  That was around 5th or 6th lowest and less than half of teams like Chicago (Cubs and White Sox), Anaheim, Detroit, NY Mets and Boston. The big, bad Yankees finished behind Tampa and Boston in the 2008 AL East standings. If this game was only about money, they had 200 million reasons why they shouldn’t have played 3rd fiddle.  The Rays home grown talent includes names like Carl Crawford, BJ Upton, Evan Longoria and David Price. In preparation for their run at the title, they also made shrewd deals to acquire pitcher Matt Garza and SS Jason Bartlett from Minnesota and signed a nice free agent at 1b named Carlos Pena.  All major contributors to their success. Stan Savran, a well-respected sports radio and TV personality in Pittsburgh laments on a regular basis on the Pirates and their issues over recent years.  He says, “It’s not the plan, it’s the execution of the plan.”

Anybody got Dr. Kevorkian’s phone number?

 How do you hit 18 home runs and cross the plate 33 times in 56 games in Major League Baseball and go unnoticed?  Do it playing for the team with the longest run of losing seasons in a row, that’s how.  In the midst of another dark and dingy campaign, a couple bright lights have shined up from the abyss that is Pirate baseball. The first is CF Andrew McCutchen. The man who hits, fields and runs like the IRS is in hot pursuit. The other is RF/1b Jones, who unlike McCutchen, a first round pick who’s arrival in the big leagues was a matter of when, not if,  came in an off-season signing that raised very few eyebrows.

A 14th round pick of the Braves in 1999,  Jones made some noise in the minor leagues, but with the Braves solid, division winning lineups back in those days, he could never nudge his way up to Atlanta.  Next came the Twins who saw some potential in him, especially the power stroke he showed in the minors. But in 31 games played, he managed only 2 HRs and a .208 average with the big club in the Twin Cities.  At that time, he had been designated a first baseman. His struggles at the plate aside, there was also this guy named Justin Morneau who played the same position.  So, after being granted free agency in November of 2008, it was off to the Pirates. Often the last train stop of a player’s career.  After a pretty good spring training, he still found himself in the minors to start the season. Then his contract was purchased by the big club and there’s been no stopping him since.

Many writers are having fun comparing him to another slugger who came out of nowhere to electrify his team–and a bank of lights at the top of the ballpark. Some guy named Roy Hobbs.  Other than the facts, it makes a great story. Hobbs is a fictional character who came from “all over.”  Was it Nebraska?  I can’t remember.  Jones was born in Harvey, IL. Fact, not fiction.  Hobbs hit home runs at a crazy pace and his last one vaulted his team to a mythical NL Pennant.  But while Garrett is also hitting home runs at a slightly alarming pace, the only flag that will be flying at PNC Park this year and likely a few more to come, has stars and stripes on it.  A fine flag it is, but a lonely one as well.

So for this summer,  Garrett Jones is the one they call Dr Feelgood in Pittsburgh. A city that boasts two title holders in the same year. The Penguins and Steelers are the reigning world champions in hockey and football.  My nephew sent me a picture message recently. It was a road sign that read “Welcome to Pittsburgh. The City of Champions…and the Pirates.  But Jones sees this town as his own private Idaho. The chance to make his mark. To help his team with their 17th reclamation project in a row.  And he is doing a pretty fair job of it. He was named the National League rookie of the month in July.  And August wasn’t too shabby either.  Currently he has a slugging percentage of .616 with the Bucs.  A real character named Ruth is the all-time leader at .690 and Albert Pujols is only at .624.  Fun statistics to be certain, but there’s this minor detail of games played. Many a superstar has blossomed in a summer and died on the vine the next season.

But for now, Garrett Jones and his bat, whatever he calls it,  march on through the dog days toward either stardom or infamy.  At 28 yrs old,  he knows this could be his last chance and he is doing whatever he can to make the most of it.  If he played 1b/OF for the New York Yankees, he would have already done Letterman, Oprah and the Today Show. Right now, he’ll settle for a post-game team interview and a few shaving cream pies to the face. And that is probably the way he likes it. Under the radar, but on the attack nonetheless. He knows what is at stake.  In the Big Apple, Frank Sinatra made the song “New York, New York” wildly famous.  In Pittsburgh, one key line of that tune is different. Follow the bouncing ball if you will. “If I can’t make it there, I’ll never make it anywhere.”  It’s up to you Garrett Jones.  So far , so good.

 Another Pirate-Friendly Deal

 When the Pirates announced the extension of Nate McLouth, it came as a surprise. Previous reports throughout the fall and winter insisted that the two sides were not close on terms to buy out his remaining years of arbitration. Instead, they were able to come together for a deal to do just that. The deal is very much back-loaded, as he will receive $2 million in 2009,$4.5 million next year, and $6.5 million in 2011. The deal also comes with a team option for 2012 worth $10.65 million, though I certainly doubt that any circumstance will arise in which the Pirates would exercise that. Instead, the buy out will be $1.25 million; the same as his signing bonus.

The Pirates will be hoping that McLouth can build on or at least equal last year’s career year, but even if he regresses slightly to his still impressive 2007, $2 million is quite a bargain. His VORP last year was 22nd in the majors, higher than the likes of Brian Roberts, Nick Markakis, and even Manny Ramirez. Roberts will make $8 million this year, and we all know about Manny’s contract demands.

The best comparison is with Markakis. The two outfielders have almost equal experience, with McLouth having played in 29 fewer  career games, and both have showed trends towards improvement in their brief careers. Markakis has a slight edge in batting statistics, with his OBP/SLG/OPS splits at a career level of .375/.476/.851; marginally higher than McLouth’s .338/.461/.799. Similarly Markakis owns slightly higher numbers in hits, extra base hits, and homers for his career as well. These things may level out if McLouth continues to raise his batting average, as that accounts for most of the difference in OBP. Regardless, the higher numbers for Markakis are indeed slight, but still undeniable. However, McLouth’s defense is among the best in either league. Defense has been a hot commodity among GM’s recently; suddenly it is playing a more significant role in contract amounts and which free agents are most appealing. In addition McLouth is speedier on the base paths and is a 25-30 stolen base threat with a very good percentage, Markakis does not pose such a threat.

So, what does this all mean? Well, I’m inclined to give the edge to Markakis as a better player at this point given his batting numbers, pedigree, and younger age (McLouth is 2 years older). However, at this point in their careers the difference is almost negligible considering the other assets that McLouth possesses…especially the defense; and last year’s VORP (which does account for stolen bases) gives the edge to McLouth in 2008. Ultimately, no matter which side of the McLouth v. Markakis debate - which I just invented out of thin air - that you side on, the comparison is reasonable. The reason I go to these extents in such a comparison because both outfielders just signed extensions long term deals this past off-season. Markakis’s deal is for 6 years, and EACH YEAR he will be earning 50% more than McLouth over the course of his contract. McLouth’s guaranteed money over the next three years will total slightly over $15 million, whereas Markakis’s will be over $60 million in the next six years.

Obviously there is no real sample size here, but I like the comparison and it jumped out at me right away. Looking at the two deals for similar players it certainly looks as though the Pirates got more for their dollar than the Orioles. That is not to take anything away from them as Markakis could become a top guy for years to come.

All in all it seems as though the Pirates managed another organization-friendly deal, having locked up Maholm, Doumit, and now McLouth for the next several years through arbitration. Suddenly a new “core” has arisen, although I seem to remember a drastically different “core” that didn’t pan out so hot. I have been partial to McLouth these past couple of years and still have high hopes going forward. Considering this, even any McLouth detractors out there have to be pleased with this deal. He had a top year among outfielders in 2008 and actually signed a deal following what could be his career year at a young age that will give him only $2 million in the subsequent season and $4 million the next. Furthermore he is a sticking with the Pirates, and indeed at his press conference he stressed his pleasure at being able to stay with the team that drafted him. Clearly he was just saying all the right things, but it’s still nice to hear.

Some quality free agents are still around and may have to settle for less, but are the Pirates done? Is there money left?

With the extension of Maholm through his arbitration years and the signing of Hinske last week, my next thought was towards signing another pitcher. Maybe another low-risk or returning-from-injury type of guy that that could be had cheaply. I had thrown out Pedro Martinez and Braden Looper as potential bargain or bust types to look into, and apparently the Pirates followed suit. However, as I was doing the math it looks as though they’re getting closer to the spending limit that they have imposed on themselves. I am basing the budget on what Coonelly had announced before would be a little over $50 million with some hinting towards a slightly higher payroll; but I am not holding my breath on this. So, in October this team had a little over $30 million committed to 2009, and around $20 million to spend. Since then: Doumit got an extension, Ramon Vazquez was signed, minor league deals were made, raises due in arbitration were given, LaRoche signed, Maholm extended, and Hinske signed. In list form:

Signings:
Vazquez will earn around $2 million
Maholm will earn $3.5 million
Hinske will earn $1.5 million
Doumit will earn $2.05 million
Laroche will earn $7.05 million

Arbitration raises:
Grabow will get $2.3 million this season, $75,000 more if he meets incentives. About $1.2 million more than last year
Duke will get $2.2 million in ‘09. With incentives totaling a possible additional $100,000. If he meets those he will get around a $2 million increase from last year
Yates will make $1.3 million this year, a $500,000 increase from last year.

Minor league contracts: Craig Monroe, Denny Bautista, Hector Gimenez, and several others. With these three guys it is possible that they will see action in Pittsburgh or never hear from them again. Monroe has a track record of success but that was a few years ago. Bautista will likely find work in middle relief somewhere. Gimenez barely has experience, getting two at bats a couple of years ago with Houston, but evidently he has played well this winter so he may challenge Jaramillo and Diaz for that back up/emergency catcher role.

Pleading ignorance: The Pirates purchased the contracts of Neil Walker, Jose Tabata, Jeff Sues, Steve Lerud and Ronald Uviedo. I honestly am not sure what this entails as far as what is owed to whom or how much it will be. I know that these moves are made in order to prevent any of them being taken in the Rule 5 draft, but I have to admit I am shady on the details of what this means as far as the 2009 budget.

Evan Meek was reportedly fantastic in fall-ball according to the Gazette, the only information I could find regarding his contract was a minor-league deal from last year. I assume his salary is the type already accounted for in Coonelly’s initial projection. His track record in the minors has been very good as well, but he struggled in a handful of appearance in his first chance in Pittsburgh last year. Sean Burnett, who saw a lot of time last year is supposedly eligible for arbitration but I have not heard anything about him filing or any commitment for 2009. With almost 60 appearances last year Burnett was so-so, but showed that he is capable of being a major league middle-reliever at this point in his career with plenty of time to develop, and I would assume he would be in for a bit of a raise.

Most importantly, Nate McLouth has yet to get his raise in arbitration which wil certainly be significant. This is his first year of arbitration eligibility which will certainly yeild a much higher salary than the near minimum he had been receiving. When you add up all of the expenses since the twenty million figure was given, it is already hovering a little over that mark without McLouth having received his raise. Even eliminating arbitration raises from the equation - as those could have been accounted for by management before the estimates were given - the free agent contracts and extensions signed are already pushing the limit.

Coonelly had left the door open to such a raise, but it would doubtfully be enough to land Looper or Martinez. Martinez would likely require at least $5 million, and initially he was demanding $7 million; though as time goes by and his suitors dwindle he may have to  reconsider those demands. Recent rumors that Looper may be close to a deal with the Brewers doesn’t help either. Truth is, I would rather see them hang on to that cash rather than break the bank for a guy who may not make more than ten starts next year, and may not be effective. It looks as though the Pirates payroll is already in the mid-fifty million dollar mark and they are probably about done for this off-season, barring any significant raise in payroll which is probably not adviseable anyway (though it would be pretty cool if they signed Adam Dunn somehow).

Pirates Sign Hinske and Monroe; Outfield Begins to Take Shape

The Pirates announced the signing of Eric Hinske over the weekend to a one year deal worth as much as $1.5 million including incentives for plate appearances. Last year Hinske batted a mediocre .247, but still managed to get on base at a .333 percentage. His slugging percentage was an impressive .465 which made for a strong OPS of .798. He managed to hit 20 home runs and 21 doubles in just 381 at bats in his role as utility corner outfielder and corner infielder, which is the role that he has primarily filled since breaking into the league as Rookie of the Year for Toronto in 2002. Statistically, his rookie year remains his career best but he can be counted on for an OBP of around .330 and a slugging percentage of around .440, which would both be around his career average.

Ok, so what does this all mean? Eric Hinske at a maximum of $1.5 million for one year is a very good signing for the Pirates, one that I recommended here a couple of months ago. Hinske has floated around under the radar for years, but has performed well every season. He is instantly the Pirates second best outfielder going into the season (though that could change by the end of the season) and if he is somehow not effective, then he will likely not reach his playing time incentives and cost the team less than a million dollars. All in all, a very low risk manoeuver with a high reward. The important thing to note is that Hinske has not been an everyday player since 2005, his last year with Toronto. The Red Sox used him has a fourth outfielder and occasional first or third baseman, and in each of his two years in Boston he played well but only registered 277 and 186 at bats. Last year he saw more time with 381 at bats, higher than either of his years in Boston but still not close to the time he was seeing in Toronto. Hinske does not hit lefties well, though he has hardly registered any at bats against them in his platoon role each of the past three years. I would strongly recommend and expect Hinske to start opening day in left field.

Considering Hinske’s struggles against left handed pitching, the minor league contract that Craig Monroe signed last month could be valuable. Monroe has not played well for several years now, and it would not shock me to see him released by mid-season, but he does have the potential to be the veteran right-handed hitter with some potential for power that would compliment Hinske nicely in left or right field. If he could hit even .240 and hit 12 homers it would be a surprise out of a fourth outfielder playing primarily against lefties (there are only a few lefty starters projected to be in the rotation among the NL Central, and these include the likes of Wandy Rodriguez, Mike Hampton, and Manny Parra) and would make a nice platoon player with Hinske, or even Nyjer Morgan, Brandon Moss, or Steven Pearce.

So then, what about the rest of the outfield? In center, of course, will be the young stud Nate McLouth. Last year, McLouth hit 26 homers, stole 23 bases, batted .276 and had an OPS of .853. In addition he earned a Gold Glove, so you know his defense is impeccable to earn the award on a 60ish win Pittsburgh team.

The other corner outfield position may be up in the air among Morgan, Moss, and Pearce. A few weeks back, the Gazette reported that the job is Brandon Moss’s providing he is healthy, and went on to say that he looked good in batting practice. This is encouraging and would be a great story heading into the season, as at the end of last year it was rumored that he had structural damage in his knee that threatened his career. Evidently, the surgery he required in October was not as extensive as initially thought, and he is confident that he will be ready for opening day. Last year in a half season with the Pirates (after coming over from Boston in the Jason Bay deal) Moss played pretty well, hitting .246 and slugging .436 with eight homers; almost half of his hits were for extra bases. His strikeouts were high and he did not walk much, yielding only a .304 on base percentage, but these are numbers we can expect to level out with more experiece, and his OBP was considerably higher in AAA Pawtucket each of the past two years. If he really is healthy, he could be a decent starting option in right field with somewhere between 15 and 20 home run power, decent speed on the bases - though not a true stolen base threat - and as high as a .280 average this year.

The other outfielders likely to break camp on the major league squad are Nyjer Morgan and Steven Pearce. Morgan hit for a solid average for the season in limited action last year, including playing very well in August and September after a slow start. His slugging percentage has never been too high, but he did show flashes down the stretch and is reported to have shown up to camp in great shape having added a lot of muscle. Hopefully this will translate to some more extra base hits this year, as last year he had only 13 doubles in just 58 games. He won’t hit home runs but he is a legitimate base stealer and should be good for a good number of doubles. He is 28 this year, and with some experience, a good second half last year, and showing up with more muscle he should be coming into his own. It would not be surprising to see him earn a bulk of the playing time if Moss or Hinske don’t pan out.

Steven Pearce will be 26 just before opening day, and has played sparingly in the past two years in Pittsburgh appearing in just 60 games. He played well in September for the Pirates, but struggled big time in Fall ball in Mexico. He has yet to show much power at any level, even in Inianapolis where he spent the bulk of the past couple of years. His pedigree shows that he can’t be expected to play great defense or hit for a high average, so he will have to show 20 or 30 homer power in order to get every day playing time in the majors.

Coming up in the minors are Andrew McCutchen who is a personal favorite, who I hope will be seeing significant time in Pittsburgh by the end of the year. Behind him is still young but erratic Jose Tobata, who will have to start in AA Altoona as he is blocked by McCutchen.

Keep in mind, different sources have different projections, and camp and spring training are still before us. ESPN has Morgan starting in right and Moss in left, with Hinske at third. Rotoworld tends to agree with me but believes Pearce will start in left. I see the outfield on opening day as Hinske in left, McLouth in center, and Moss in right. I could see Monroe getting some starts in left or right in a platoon type of situation with Hinske, Morgan as being the best 4th outfielder if Monroe continues his descent into ineffectuality, and Pearce as an insurance policy who can hopefully develop the power we’ve been hoping for. A lot will depend on who has developed better in the offseason between Pearce and Morgan. I also like the idea of McCutchen making it to the majors well before the All-Star break, and Tobata getting a chance to display some consistency in Altoona and Indianapolis.

We’ll look into the bullpen next, continue with signing and news updates, and look into the near 20 year slump endured in Pittsburgh and the history of this failure.