The hunt for October is on.  All the MLB contenders are gearing up for the playoff stretch drive. The Twins and Tigers are in a battle for the AL Central.  There’s a wild card race in the NL West between San Francisco and Colorado. The Cardinals, Dodgers and Anaheim are all in. And there’s a couple of other teams in the playoffs you may have heard of–The Yankees and Red Sox.

But for fans of the Pittsburgh Pirates, the hunt for April is in the works. After watching their team lose 23 of their last 27 games, the only thing that Pittsburgh fans have to look forward to now is Steeler Sunday.  They play the Bengals this weekend in the Queen City.  Most Steeler fans know every Steeler player. They know their uniform numbers, their kids’ names and when they are due for their next vaccinations. A healthy lot of them can even spell Roethlisberger.  But ask a Pittsburgher about the Pirates lineup and he or she might reply “Who Dey?”  The misery culminated in the closing of the upper deck in last Thursday’s loss to the Reds. To be fair, the G-20 Summit held in the city last week had a lot to do with the sparse crowd,  as a lot of people stayed away from the security nightmare in town and at PNC Park.  So,  on Thursday, Pirate management passed out leaflets to fans who were holding upper level seats that read “please enjoy a seat upgrade, courtesy of The Pirates.” G-thanks?

17 straight seasons of losing.  The longest modern day streak in all the 4 major sports. Before that, the Philadelphia Phillies held the record by themselves with 16 from 1933-48.  In the other sports, the Vancouver Canucks and Sacramento/Kansas City Kings each had stretches of 15, and those other Buccaneers–in Tampa did it for 14 consecutive years.  They had the unique distinction of losing the first 26 NFL games they played over two seasons in 1976-77. Their first coach was the late John McKay, an affable character who was the owner of a classic collection of post-game quotes.  The most famous was after a loss in which his team turned the ball over repeatedly and committed several penalties. A reporter asked, “What do you think about your team’s execution?”  McKay replied, “I’m all for it.”  Pirates skipper John Russell can relate.

For many small market baseball teams like the Pirates, proper execution is founded in the front office. In the scouting department and in the development of players drafted by the organization. It can be done. The Marlins, Twins, Oakland A’s and Cleveland Indians have had success.  They have had success because their plans were executed properly. They build a good talent base in the draft, make a couple good trades, then add quality free agents when they are close to contending. That is where the Pirates franchise has failed miserably for almost 20 years. The stink starts at the bottom and works its way up from there. And because they never get close to contending, the quality free agent door is marked exit only.  Who would have ever thought a team once filled with talent like Andy Van Slyke, Barry Bonds, Bobby Bonilla and Doug Drabek could ever spiral into a tailspin like this?

It is not as difficult as it seems. Especially when you have an owner (Bob Nutting) who claims to have a passion for winning, but for years hired scouts on the cheap, let good ones get away,  and let a minor league system fester.  It was only recently (last year) that he made a commitment to developing Latin American ballplayers by funding an academy in the Dominican Republic. That gold mine was left unattended for years. Makes you wonder if he had a sudden revelation, or are his books now being more scrutinized by MLB brass? The rules of revenue sharing from larger market/salaried teams to smaller ones are clear. They state that the receiving owners must put that money into the baseball operation of their franchises, not in the sock drawer of their triple dressers.  If CSI had a Pittsburgh chapter, it would love picking this one apart.  Time will tell if new team President Frank Coonley and GM Neil Huntington will make their plan work. They decided to rip the whole rickety house down and rebuild it. Habitat For Humanity would have helped, but they didn’t have enough volunteers for a job that size.

Obviously there is a financial gap the size of George Steinbrenner’s bank account separating the Big “haves” from the have-nots. That cannot be ignored.  And without a salary cap, big market teams can buy who they want, when they want. And come trade deadline time, they pick away at the rotting carcasses of the weak. But there is still no excuse for being so bad for so long.  The Tampa Bay Rays proved that through smart drafting and scouting, you can be in a position to contend. Then you can pounce on a few free agents and draw your sling back and aim it at the big boys. They were American League Champions last year with a finishing payroll in the 60 million dollar range.  That was around 5th or 6th lowest and less than half of teams like Chicago (Cubs and White Sox), Anaheim, Detroit, NY Mets and Boston. The big, bad Yankees finished behind Tampa and Boston in the 2008 AL East standings. If this game was only about money, they had 200 million reasons why they shouldn’t have played 3rd fiddle.  The Rays home grown talent includes names like Carl Crawford, BJ Upton, Evan Longoria and David Price. In preparation for their run at the title, they also made shrewd deals to acquire pitcher Matt Garza and SS Jason Bartlett from Minnesota and signed a nice free agent at 1b named Carlos Pena.  All major contributors to their success. Stan Savran, a well-respected sports radio and TV personality in Pittsburgh laments on a regular basis on the Pirates and their issues over recent years.  He says, “It’s not the plan, it’s the execution of the plan.”

Anybody got Dr. Kevorkian’s phone number?

 How do you hit 18 home runs and cross the plate 33 times in 56 games in Major League Baseball and go unnoticed?  Do it playing for the team with the longest run of losing seasons in a row, that’s how.  In the midst of another dark and dingy campaign, a couple bright lights have shined up from the abyss that is Pirate baseball. The first is CF Andrew McCutchen. The man who hits, fields and runs like the IRS is in hot pursuit. The other is RF/1b Jones, who unlike McCutchen, a first round pick who’s arrival in the big leagues was a matter of when, not if,  came in an off-season signing that raised very few eyebrows.

A 14th round pick of the Braves in 1999,  Jones made some noise in the minor leagues, but with the Braves solid, division winning lineups back in those days, he could never nudge his way up to Atlanta.  Next came the Twins who saw some potential in him, especially the power stroke he showed in the minors. But in 31 games played, he managed only 2 HRs and a .208 average with the big club in the Twin Cities.  At that time, he had been designated a first baseman. His struggles at the plate aside, there was also this guy named Justin Morneau who played the same position.  So, after being granted free agency in November of 2008, it was off to the Pirates. Often the last train stop of a player’s career.  After a pretty good spring training, he still found himself in the minors to start the season. Then his contract was purchased by the big club and there’s been no stopping him since.

Many writers are having fun comparing him to another slugger who came out of nowhere to electrify his team–and a bank of lights at the top of the ballpark. Some guy named Roy Hobbs.  Other than the facts, it makes a great story. Hobbs is a fictional character who came from “all over.”  Was it Nebraska?  I can’t remember.  Jones was born in Harvey, IL. Fact, not fiction.  Hobbs hit home runs at a crazy pace and his last one vaulted his team to a mythical NL Pennant.  But while Garrett is also hitting home runs at a slightly alarming pace, the only flag that will be flying at PNC Park this year and likely a few more to come, has stars and stripes on it.  A fine flag it is, but a lonely one as well.

So for this summer,  Garrett Jones is the one they call Dr Feelgood in Pittsburgh. A city that boasts two title holders in the same year. The Penguins and Steelers are the reigning world champions in hockey and football.  My nephew sent me a picture message recently. It was a road sign that read “Welcome to Pittsburgh. The City of Champions…and the Pirates.  But Jones sees this town as his own private Idaho. The chance to make his mark. To help his team with their 17th reclamation project in a row.  And he is doing a pretty fair job of it. He was named the National League rookie of the month in July.  And August wasn’t too shabby either.  Currently he has a slugging percentage of .616 with the Bucs.  A real character named Ruth is the all-time leader at .690 and Albert Pujols is only at .624.  Fun statistics to be certain, but there’s this minor detail of games played. Many a superstar has blossomed in a summer and died on the vine the next season.

But for now, Garrett Jones and his bat, whatever he calls it,  march on through the dog days toward either stardom or infamy.  At 28 yrs old,  he knows this could be his last chance and he is doing whatever he can to make the most of it.  If he played 1b/OF for the New York Yankees, he would have already done Letterman, Oprah and the Today Show. Right now, he’ll settle for a post-game team interview and a few shaving cream pies to the face. And that is probably the way he likes it. Under the radar, but on the attack nonetheless. He knows what is at stake.  In the Big Apple, Frank Sinatra made the song “New York, New York” wildly famous.  In Pittsburgh, one key line of that tune is different. Follow the bouncing ball if you will. “If I can’t make it there, I’ll never make it anywhere.”  It’s up to you Garrett Jones.  So far , so good.

 Another Pirate-Friendly Deal

 When the Pirates announced the extension of Nate McLouth, it came as a surprise. Previous reports throughout the fall and winter insisted that the two sides were not close on terms to buy out his remaining years of arbitration. Instead, they were able to come together for a deal to do just that. The deal is very much back-loaded, as he will receive $2 million in 2009,$4.5 million next year, and $6.5 million in 2011. The deal also comes with a team option for 2012 worth $10.65 million, though I certainly doubt that any circumstance will arise in which the Pirates would exercise that. Instead, the buy out will be $1.25 million; the same as his signing bonus.

The Pirates will be hoping that McLouth can build on or at least equal last year’s career year, but even if he regresses slightly to his still impressive 2007, $2 million is quite a bargain. His VORP last year was 22nd in the majors, higher than the likes of Brian Roberts, Nick Markakis, and even Manny Ramirez. Roberts will make $8 million this year, and we all know about Manny’s contract demands.

The best comparison is with Markakis. The two outfielders have almost equal experience, with McLouth having played in 29 fewer  career games, and both have showed trends towards improvement in their brief careers. Markakis has a slight edge in batting statistics, with his OBP/SLG/OPS splits at a career level of .375/.476/.851; marginally higher than McLouth’s .338/.461/.799. Similarly Markakis owns slightly higher numbers in hits, extra base hits, and homers for his career as well. These things may level out if McLouth continues to raise his batting average, as that accounts for most of the difference in OBP. Regardless, the higher numbers for Markakis are indeed slight, but still undeniable. However, McLouth’s defense is among the best in either league. Defense has been a hot commodity among GM’s recently; suddenly it is playing a more significant role in contract amounts and which free agents are most appealing. In addition McLouth is speedier on the base paths and is a 25-30 stolen base threat with a very good percentage, Markakis does not pose such a threat.

So, what does this all mean? Well, I’m inclined to give the edge to Markakis as a better player at this point given his batting numbers, pedigree, and younger age (McLouth is 2 years older). However, at this point in their careers the difference is almost negligible considering the other assets that McLouth possesses…especially the defense; and last year’s VORP (which does account for stolen bases) gives the edge to McLouth in 2008. Ultimately, no matter which side of the McLouth v. Markakis debate - which I just invented out of thin air - that you side on, the comparison is reasonable. The reason I go to these extents in such a comparison because both outfielders just signed extensions long term deals this past off-season. Markakis’s deal is for 6 years, and EACH YEAR he will be earning 50% more than McLouth over the course of his contract. McLouth’s guaranteed money over the next three years will total slightly over $15 million, whereas Markakis’s will be over $60 million in the next six years.

Obviously there is no real sample size here, but I like the comparison and it jumped out at me right away. Looking at the two deals for similar players it certainly looks as though the Pirates got more for their dollar than the Orioles. That is not to take anything away from them as Markakis could become a top guy for years to come.

All in all it seems as though the Pirates managed another organization-friendly deal, having locked up Maholm, Doumit, and now McLouth for the next several years through arbitration. Suddenly a new “core” has arisen, although I seem to remember a drastically different “core” that didn’t pan out so hot. I have been partial to McLouth these past couple of years and still have high hopes going forward. Considering this, even any McLouth detractors out there have to be pleased with this deal. He had a top year among outfielders in 2008 and actually signed a deal following what could be his career year at a young age that will give him only $2 million in the subsequent season and $4 million the next. Furthermore he is a sticking with the Pirates, and indeed at his press conference he stressed his pleasure at being able to stay with the team that drafted him. Clearly he was just saying all the right things, but it’s still nice to hear.

Some quality free agents are still around and may have to settle for less, but are the Pirates done? Is there money left?

With the extension of Maholm through his arbitration years and the signing of Hinske last week, my next thought was towards signing another pitcher. Maybe another low-risk or returning-from-injury type of guy that that could be had cheaply. I had thrown out Pedro Martinez and Braden Looper as potential bargain or bust types to look into, and apparently the Pirates followed suit. However, as I was doing the math it looks as though they’re getting closer to the spending limit that they have imposed on themselves. I am basing the budget on what Coonelly had announced before would be a little over $50 million with some hinting towards a slightly higher payroll; but I am not holding my breath on this. So, in October this team had a little over $30 million committed to 2009, and around $20 million to spend. Since then: Doumit got an extension, Ramon Vazquez was signed, minor league deals were made, raises due in arbitration were given, LaRoche signed, Maholm extended, and Hinske signed. In list form:

Signings:
Vazquez will earn around $2 million
Maholm will earn $3.5 million
Hinske will earn $1.5 million
Doumit will earn $2.05 million
Laroche will earn $7.05 million

Arbitration raises:
Grabow will get $2.3 million this season, $75,000 more if he meets incentives. About $1.2 million more than last year
Duke will get $2.2 million in ‘09. With incentives totaling a possible additional $100,000. If he meets those he will get around a $2 million increase from last year
Yates will make $1.3 million this year, a $500,000 increase from last year.

Minor league contracts: Craig Monroe, Denny Bautista, Hector Gimenez, and several others. With these three guys it is possible that they will see action in Pittsburgh or never hear from them again. Monroe has a track record of success but that was a few years ago. Bautista will likely find work in middle relief somewhere. Gimenez barely has experience, getting two at bats a couple of years ago with Houston, but evidently he has played well this winter so he may challenge Jaramillo and Diaz for that back up/emergency catcher role.

Pleading ignorance: The Pirates purchased the contracts of Neil Walker, Jose Tabata, Jeff Sues, Steve Lerud and Ronald Uviedo. I honestly am not sure what this entails as far as what is owed to whom or how much it will be. I know that these moves are made in order to prevent any of them being taken in the Rule 5 draft, but I have to admit I am shady on the details of what this means as far as the 2009 budget.

Evan Meek was reportedly fantastic in fall-ball according to the Gazette, the only information I could find regarding his contract was a minor-league deal from last year. I assume his salary is the type already accounted for in Coonelly’s initial projection. His track record in the minors has been very good as well, but he struggled in a handful of appearance in his first chance in Pittsburgh last year. Sean Burnett, who saw a lot of time last year is supposedly eligible for arbitration but I have not heard anything about him filing or any commitment for 2009. With almost 60 appearances last year Burnett was so-so, but showed that he is capable of being a major league middle-reliever at this point in his career with plenty of time to develop, and I would assume he would be in for a bit of a raise.

Most importantly, Nate McLouth has yet to get his raise in arbitration which wil certainly be significant. This is his first year of arbitration eligibility which will certainly yeild a much higher salary than the near minimum he had been receiving. When you add up all of the expenses since the twenty million figure was given, it is already hovering a little over that mark without McLouth having received his raise. Even eliminating arbitration raises from the equation - as those could have been accounted for by management before the estimates were given - the free agent contracts and extensions signed are already pushing the limit.

Coonelly had left the door open to such a raise, but it would doubtfully be enough to land Looper or Martinez. Martinez would likely require at least $5 million, and initially he was demanding $7 million; though as time goes by and his suitors dwindle he may have to  reconsider those demands. Recent rumors that Looper may be close to a deal with the Brewers doesn’t help either. Truth is, I would rather see them hang on to that cash rather than break the bank for a guy who may not make more than ten starts next year, and may not be effective. It looks as though the Pirates payroll is already in the mid-fifty million dollar mark and they are probably about done for this off-season, barring any significant raise in payroll which is probably not adviseable anyway (though it would be pretty cool if they signed Adam Dunn somehow).

Pirates Sign Hinske and Monroe; Outfield Begins to Take Shape

The Pirates announced the signing of Eric Hinske over the weekend to a one year deal worth as much as $1.5 million including incentives for plate appearances. Last year Hinske batted a mediocre .247, but still managed to get on base at a .333 percentage. His slugging percentage was an impressive .465 which made for a strong OPS of .798. He managed to hit 20 home runs and 21 doubles in just 381 at bats in his role as utility corner outfielder and corner infielder, which is the role that he has primarily filled since breaking into the league as Rookie of the Year for Toronto in 2002. Statistically, his rookie year remains his career best but he can be counted on for an OBP of around .330 and a slugging percentage of around .440, which would both be around his career average.

Ok, so what does this all mean? Eric Hinske at a maximum of $1.5 million for one year is a very good signing for the Pirates, one that I recommended here a couple of months ago. Hinske has floated around under the radar for years, but has performed well every season. He is instantly the Pirates second best outfielder going into the season (though that could change by the end of the season) and if he is somehow not effective, then he will likely not reach his playing time incentives and cost the team less than a million dollars. All in all, a very low risk manoeuver with a high reward. The important thing to note is that Hinske has not been an everyday player since 2005, his last year with Toronto. The Red Sox used him has a fourth outfielder and occasional first or third baseman, and in each of his two years in Boston he played well but only registered 277 and 186 at bats. Last year he saw more time with 381 at bats, higher than either of his years in Boston but still not close to the time he was seeing in Toronto. Hinske does not hit lefties well, though he has hardly registered any at bats against them in his platoon role each of the past three years. I would strongly recommend and expect Hinske to start opening day in left field.

Considering Hinske’s struggles against left handed pitching, the minor league contract that Craig Monroe signed last month could be valuable. Monroe has not played well for several years now, and it would not shock me to see him released by mid-season, but he does have the potential to be the veteran right-handed hitter with some potential for power that would compliment Hinske nicely in left or right field. If he could hit even .240 and hit 12 homers it would be a surprise out of a fourth outfielder playing primarily against lefties (there are only a few lefty starters projected to be in the rotation among the NL Central, and these include the likes of Wandy Rodriguez, Mike Hampton, and Manny Parra) and would make a nice platoon player with Hinske, or even Nyjer Morgan, Brandon Moss, or Steven Pearce.

So then, what about the rest of the outfield? In center, of course, will be the young stud Nate McLouth. Last year, McLouth hit 26 homers, stole 23 bases, batted .276 and had an OPS of .853. In addition he earned a Gold Glove, so you know his defense is impeccable to earn the award on a 60ish win Pittsburgh team.

The other corner outfield position may be up in the air among Morgan, Moss, and Pearce. A few weeks back, the Gazette reported that the job is Brandon Moss’s providing he is healthy, and went on to say that he looked good in batting practice. This is encouraging and would be a great story heading into the season, as at the end of last year it was rumored that he had structural damage in his knee that threatened his career. Evidently, the surgery he required in October was not as extensive as initially thought, and he is confident that he will be ready for opening day. Last year in a half season with the Pirates (after coming over from Boston in the Jason Bay deal) Moss played pretty well, hitting .246 and slugging .436 with eight homers; almost half of his hits were for extra bases. His strikeouts were high and he did not walk much, yielding only a .304 on base percentage, but these are numbers we can expect to level out with more experiece, and his OBP was considerably higher in AAA Pawtucket each of the past two years. If he really is healthy, he could be a decent starting option in right field with somewhere between 15 and 20 home run power, decent speed on the bases - though not a true stolen base threat - and as high as a .280 average this year.

The other outfielders likely to break camp on the major league squad are Nyjer Morgan and Steven Pearce. Morgan hit for a solid average for the season in limited action last year, including playing very well in August and September after a slow start. His slugging percentage has never been too high, but he did show flashes down the stretch and is reported to have shown up to camp in great shape having added a lot of muscle. Hopefully this will translate to some more extra base hits this year, as last year he had only 13 doubles in just 58 games. He won’t hit home runs but he is a legitimate base stealer and should be good for a good number of doubles. He is 28 this year, and with some experience, a good second half last year, and showing up with more muscle he should be coming into his own. It would not be surprising to see him earn a bulk of the playing time if Moss or Hinske don’t pan out.

Steven Pearce will be 26 just before opening day, and has played sparingly in the past two years in Pittsburgh appearing in just 60 games. He played well in September for the Pirates, but struggled big time in Fall ball in Mexico. He has yet to show much power at any level, even in Inianapolis where he spent the bulk of the past couple of years. His pedigree shows that he can’t be expected to play great defense or hit for a high average, so he will have to show 20 or 30 homer power in order to get every day playing time in the majors.

Coming up in the minors are Andrew McCutchen who is a personal favorite, who I hope will be seeing significant time in Pittsburgh by the end of the year. Behind him is still young but erratic Jose Tobata, who will have to start in AA Altoona as he is blocked by McCutchen.

Keep in mind, different sources have different projections, and camp and spring training are still before us. ESPN has Morgan starting in right and Moss in left, with Hinske at third. Rotoworld tends to agree with me but believes Pearce will start in left. I see the outfield on opening day as Hinske in left, McLouth in center, and Moss in right. I could see Monroe getting some starts in left or right in a platoon type of situation with Hinske, Morgan as being the best 4th outfielder if Monroe continues his descent into ineffectuality, and Pearce as an insurance policy who can hopefully develop the power we’ve been hoping for. A lot will depend on who has developed better in the offseason between Pearce and Morgan. I also like the idea of McCutchen making it to the majors well before the All-Star break, and Tobata getting a chance to display some consistency in Altoona and Indianapolis.

We’ll look into the bullpen next, continue with signing and news updates, and look into the near 20 year slump endured in Pittsburgh and the history of this failure.

       After trying to move any or all of three quarters of the infield (Adam Laroche, Freddy Sanchez, and Jack Wilson) the Pirates will field all three-along with the younger Laroche-on opening day in St. Louis on April 6th. Sanchez and Wilson are both signed through 2009 with club options for 2010 that will probably not be exercised, and either of them may be traded depending on individual and team performance. Let’s take a look at the faces that will make up the infield on opening day, going right to left.

Adam Laroche, First Base

Laroche just signed a one year deal for $7.05 million plus incentives, a slight raise over last year’s $5 million. Since coming over from Atlanta following his career-best season in 2006, Laroche has put up solid numbers that have almost matched his ‘06 production. It is slightly disappointing that he has seemed to level off at that production, as he had been improving with his years and was only 26 at the time. However, during the two years that he has been in a Pirates uniform he has performed ably. Last year his average and on base percentage went down only a couple of percentage points from his first year in Pittsburgh to .270 and .341 respectively, while bumping up his slugging to an even .500 for a total OPS of a solid .841. This is still considerably below the .914 OPS that he posted in 2006, but last year’s performance was good enough for the 15th best VORP in the majors among first basemen. In the rankings he was just behind Jason Giambi and Derrek Lee (not bad), but just above Ronnie Belliard and James Loney (not great). Basically, when you adjust for his position, his ability and performances place hims somewhere between an all-star and a regular, a very nice player to have. Last year he missed about 30 games, and next year he will be eligible for free agency for the first time. At 29, he should be at his prime physically, and on the eve of free agency he will be looking for a big year to cash in on. Laroche is a notorious second half player with a history of starting slow; his career OPS in April is .599. One key to a big year this year will be his ability to survive April with an OPS of at least .730. If he gets off to a good start, remains motivated, and stays healthy, Laroche could easily bat .280 and hit 30+ homers.

Freddy Sanchez, Second Base

Sanchez will look to rebound after a mediocre year in 2008 which has recently been reported to have been affected by nagging shoulder problems stemming from surgery he had almost 2 years ago. He finished strong last year, batting close to .400 in September and .338 total during the second half last year. He has never had a strong slugging percentage, but last years’ .371 was a career low for him. His second-half .470 slugging percentage was more on par with his career rate, and similar to his elevated average helped raise his first half .304 rate and make it somewhat more respectable. As always, Sanchez did not walk much and his on base percentage was only slightly higher than his .269 batting average at .296. Adding these together, his OPS totalled a disappointing .669 last year. At this point in his career we can not expect Sanchez to start walking more. While it would be nice for those numbers to increase, hopefully he can get his average back up to at least .320 and nudge his on base percentage closer to an acceptable .380. Since we know he will not put up great slugging numbers - and that’s not what he’s around for - we can anticipate an OPS slightly below .800 for 2009 providing he has his health. His career best .851 from three years ago would be asking a bit much from the 31 year old, but .800 would certainly be a big contribution from the top of the order. I like Sanchez to rebound this year if he can get off to a solid start, although I still don’t believe his production will be worth the $6.1 million he is getting this year. If (and what an if it is) the Pirates appear out of it and Sanchez is playing well, I wouldn’t mind seeing him dealt at the deadline. In 2010 he is only owed an $8 million club option with a much cheaper buyout, which will make him attractive to a team trying to compete down the stretch with a hole in the middle of the infield.

Jack Wilson, Shortstop

Wilson will also be looking to improve after a poor 2008. He had an array of injuries ranging from his finger, calf, and shoulder that held him out of almost half of the team’s games last year. When he did play, he did not play very well. He batted a respectable .272, but walked only thirteen times and totaled an on base percentage of only .312. In addition, he hit only one home run and 20 extra base hits for a slugging percentage of .348, and registered a total OPS of just .659. His VORP was 28th among shortstopsat just a 2.1 (think about that…two point one!), placing him between Cesar Izturis and Jeff Keppinger and well below the likes of David Eckstein and Jed Lowrie. Okay, so it has been well established that Wilson was essentially a very average baseball player and below average shortstop last year, so what can we look for 2009? Not much. I talked about Wilson a couple of months ago when he made a ruckus about how management needs to bring in more players to help them compete, at which point several of us pointed out that Wilson is making far more money and playing far worse baseball than he should be, and probably ought not to say anything about management (granted, they too are underachieving). He has had two solid years in the majors; in 2007 he got on base at a .350 percentage and had an OPS of .791, but even that year his VORP was 11th among shortstops and comparable to Brendan Harris (younger and cheaper) and Yunel Escobar (same, also gets on base much more consistently). In his very best year back in 2004, he totaled an OPS of .794 and his VORP was sixth among shortstops. Aside from his best season five years ago when he was right behind the elite shortstops of the game, and 2007 when he was among league-average contributors at his position, Wilson’s six other major league seasons have been similar to last year, placing him among the other mediocre shortstops of the league. This biggest problem is that the Pirates gave him a three-year deal (with club option for a fourth) worth over $20 million dollars, $7.25 million of which will be paid this coming season. The Pirates were aggressively shopping the 31 year old throughout the offseason, but unsurprisingly there were no takers. Hopefully he can perform well enough to be dealt at the deadline. I would much rather see him go than the likes of Freddy Sanchez. A healthy, every day Jack Wilson who is ready to perform this year will hopefully get on base at a .340 rate and slug around .400, though both of these figures are optimistic. If he registers an OPS of over .700, it would be quite a nice surprise.

Andy Laroche, Third Base

Ryan Doumit, Catcher

Doumitwas one of the few bright spots for the Pirates in 2008. He missed considerable time, playing in just 118 games and injuries remain a concern moving forward. However he was very effective when he did play, batting .318 and getting on base at a .357 rate while also hitting for some power. His slugging percentage was a very nice .501 which totaled an OPS of .858, good enough for top five among catchers in both OPS and VORP. He signed a three year deal worth $11.5 million with club options for the two years following. At first I was critical of the deal, but when the details were announced I had to go back and admit that if he can stay healthy and perform as well as he has for the past two years, then this could be a bargain for the Pirates over the next few years. At this point in his career it does not appear as though Doumit will learn how to walk more often, so an elevated on base percentage will depend on whether he can continue to keep his batting average at or around .300. This is always a dangerous expectation for any player, and especially a catcher who already has injury concerns at 27 years old. Providing he can keep that average up and log at least 120 games, I would expect that he will keep that OPS at around .820 and see the trends of his growing power continue to get his homers up over 20 and runs batted in to the 85-90 range.

Ramon Vazquez, Utility Infielder

Vazquez recently signed a two year deal worth $4 million to serve as the Pirate’s utility man. He can play second, shortstop, or third, but presumably he will be used chiefly to help along Andy Laroche as he develops at third. Vazquez actually had his career year last year batting .290, getting on base at a .365 percentage, and slugging .430 or an OPS of .795. Generally he has been more of a .250 average, .300 OBP type of guy up until last year, which would still be acceptable to face right handed hitters once or twice a week (he can not hit lefties). If he can somehow keep last year’s numbers through smoke and/or mirrors, it would be a decent plan for third if Laroche falters, or at short if Wilson is dealt or continues in his impotence.

Other options in the infield include backup catcher Jason Jaramillo who has never played beyond AAA, but will probably overtake Robinson Diaz (fellow minor leaguer) for the spot on the roster. Bixler remains an option on the left side of the infield, but his highly anticipated debut last year turned into a disaster and he can not be counted on for 2010. He has also been named in trade rumors for the Marlins second base prospect, Robert Andino.

Million Dollar Arm Update: Someone had asked last week about Rinku Singh and Dinesh Patel, the two contest winners from India who were signed by the Pirates in the Fall. According to MLB.com, they should be arriving in Bradenton for camp any day now after being back in India for the past couple of months since the signing.

I’ll try to get the outfield and the bullpen by the end of the weekend, and also update on recent news. The Gazette reported today that the Pirates may have come to terms with Maholm on a three-year deal which would be great. In other news, Huntington and Coonelly appear to be heeding my advice on their recent free agent negotiations. After going after Baldelli and kicking the tires on Pedro Martinez, they appear close to making a deal with Eric Hinske. Hinske has been one of my personal favorites and for the past several years has been one of the more underrated and affordable players in the game.

Dejan Kovacevich offers almost daily updates from camp with some thorough information and insight about the Pirates. There is certainly a lot to discuss here, and for me the best bright spot is news that Tom Gorzelanny showed up to camp having lost significant weight and ready for a big year. Tom had a rough year last year, disappointing after big expectations following a big 2007. He is in great shape, and according to battery mate Ryan Doumit he is mentally prepared for 2009. Gorzelanny is now two years removed from his breakthrough season, but last year he saw his innings and strikeouts cut in half (largely due to injury because of his poor fitness), yet he walked more batters and allowed more home runs total than in a full 2007 season. In addition his ERA shot up nearly three runs, and his WHIP went up nearly .5 points. Recent stories have him practically apologizing for last year, and promising better things to come. Clearly he has the stuff to perform at an elite level, and hopefully he now has the physique and mentality to boot. This recent news of his coming to camp in peak form is promising, and my hopes are higher than ever. Granted my hopes were similar for 2008, but I am encouraged by his maturity and the humbling 2008 that he had. I expect to see his ERA drop to a career low, somewhere around 3.45, and with his new strength I hope for 165+ strikeouts; above all else - and my favorite indicator - I suspect his hits and walks to go down to yield a sub 1.25 WHIP. I may be getting a bit excited here, but I genuinely expect some big things out of Tom this year.

 Other reports have Andrew McCutchen showing up to camp having added significant weight in muscle. Last year McCutchen spent the whole season in Indianapolis batting well and getting on base at a.372 rate but had only 38 extra base hits for a slugging percentage of .398. News of his showing up with some extra bulk is encouraging, as his power has been his biggest question mark coming up. At 22 years of age with 4 years of minor league ball experience that show a trend towards increasing his on base abilities and base stealing, and an evident commitment to staying in shame and improving his power; McCutchen is already making his case to be the team’s leadoff man by the end of the year if all goes well. That being said, he has yet to play a game at the major league level in Pittsburgh, but it has to be coming soon. Power is generally considered something that develops with age, and he certainly has plenty of time ahead of him to see those numbers grow. I desperately want to see Andrew in the majors by the end of April, and I think if he performs as he did last year in Indianapolis and adds a little power then there is no reason to expect him not to.

 On a disappointing note, Pedro Alvarez showed up fatter and less strong following his controversial hold out and eventual signing to a contract with a large amount of guaranteed money. He reportedly has some issues in both knees though we are told it is nothing serious to worry about. After high hopes for Alvarez to start the season in High A ball and forgo all rookie leagues, it appears as though they have been slightly dashed, though Frank Coonelly said that this is not the case. Regardless, he is still a tremendous asset going forward, and we can hope for his impact to be immediate and significant within the organization in the coming years.

 Other reports from camp detail a couple of injuries. Jeff Karstens reportedly experienced some elbow pain that could set him back a couple of weeks, and Freddy Sanchez is still having shoulder issues stemming from rotator cuff surgery that is almost two years old. He did say he is feeling “really good” and that he’s looking to rebound this year, following a 2008 during which his shoulder was acting up the whole season.  In other news, Adam Laroche got a one year deal at $7.05 million plus incentives for 2009. This seems about right for his production, and arbitration seemed to get it right again. Similarly Zach Duke, Tyler Yates, and John Grabow got their raises in arbitration. Each of these guys can be expected to see significant innings this year.

 Ok, this week I’ll try to get back on some more analysis rather than these summaries. I am compiling a lot of data about the bullpen, new signings, and an infield that suddenly looks very nice. Apologize for the lagging. Family, Inaugurations, and weddings…but back to the mundane which will yield much more time for the Pirates.

In the past couple weeks:

-Dejean Kovacevich wrote a piece about Nyjer Morgan’s progress and enthusiasm entering season. Morgan finished strong last year after a rough start, and is looking to build on a solid September. As John Russel pointed out, he needs to worry about getting on base more by taking some walks in addition to all those hits he was collecting at the end of the year.

-Phil Dumatrait had a setback with his recently surgically repaired left shoulder and will be resting for the time being, and the beginning of his season has been called into question. This may count him out of the running for the fourth or fifth starting pitcher spot in the rotation, but details are hazy on his injury.

-The Pirates lost out on the Rocco Baldelli contest when the Red Sox signed him as their 4th outfielder. This is a bit of a blow as he could have been had at a reasonable price and would have served as one of the Pirates better hitters, and most likely an everyday player when healthy. Instead, the outfield on opening day is shaping up to be Morgan in left, Brandon Moss in center, and Nate McLouth in right. If he continues his pace from last year, Andrew McCutchen could give Morgan a run for the starting spot in left, though that wouldn’t be for at least several weeks into the season.   A few days earlier, they missed out on Derrick Turnbow, who signed with the Rangers for who signed him to a minor league deal with as much as $1.2 million in incentives.

-Owner Kevin McClatchy sold his remaining shares in the Pirates to controlling owner Bob Nutting. McClatchy is considered to have played a major role in the financing and construction of PNC Park…so it wasn’t all bad.

-Minor league shortstops Anderson Machado and Pedro Lopez were signed to add depth to the AA and AAA affiliates. Lopez is 24 and was mediocre at best last year, hitting .236 in the Blue Jays system at AAA, well below his career average of .274 in the minors. In other minor league news, the club re-signed LHP Corey Hamman who led the Pirate farm system in wins with a 9-9 record last year in Indianapolis and AA Altoona.
TOP PROSPECTS

-Over at minorleagueball.com, a discussion and list of the Pirate’s top twenty prospects was conducted. The website is incredibly informative and well researched, going in depth on prospects that many fans who consider themselves to be die-hard supporters and well read on their favorite teams are not familiar with (myself included). The discussion yielded Pedro Alvarez as the cream of the crop, no surprise there. Expectations for the third baseman are extremely high, and GM Neal Huntington even hinted that he might have a chance at advancing through the minors to AAA or the big leagues if all goes well.

-Following Alvarez is McCutchen, who should start the year in Indianapolis and will hopefully build on last year and make it up to Pittsburgh by May.

-After McCutchen is Jose Tabata who came over from the Yankees last year. Evidently, he played well last year in the minors in center field. Tabata is a guy I’ve been hearing about since he was drafted a few years back by the Yankees. I was surprised to see him still on these lists, but he is still just 20 years old, and registered a .964 OPS in 22 games after the trade in AA Altoona. Those numbers highlighted the best stretch of his career thus far, though he will certainly need some more time in Altoona. Hopefully if he and McCutchen each perform well, Tabata can get some significant in Indianapolis when McCutchen gets called up to the big leagues. The ceiling remains high for Tabata, but he is currently blocked by McCutchen and Brandon Moss in the majors.

-Following Tabata they rank Bryan Morris as the Pirates fourth best prospect. Morris is a 21 year old right handed pitcher who was drafted in 2006. He is only one year removed from Tommy John surgery that he had at 20 years of age which scares me, but performed well in A ball for both the Dodgers and the Pirates in 17 starts last year. The author does have a tendency to rate younger kids pretty high, and probably higher than they ought to be, but it is a good indicator either way. Morris is certainly someone we will have our eye on in the future, and I’ll try to revisit Morris among the others during the season.

-Rounding out the top five is Daniel McCutchen. McCutchen is a 26 year old right handed pitcher who also came over from the Yankees organization. He was dominant in AA last year, and very good in AAA in both the Yankee and Pirate system. His WHIP was low acrossboth levels and among all three teams. His strikeout rate dropped and ERA rose upon his promotion to AAA, but at 4.69 over eight starts in Indianapolis isn’t terrible, and 3.58 over eleven starts with the Yankees AAA affiliate in Scranton is pretty good. Low home run rates and few walks are a good way to get a chance in the majors, especially with the prevalent control problems the Pirates had last year.