Outfield Outlook
Pirates Sign Hinske and Monroe; Outfield Begins to Take Shape
The Pirates announced the signing of Eric Hinske over the weekend to a one year deal worth as much as $1.5 million including incentives for plate appearances. Last year Hinske batted a mediocre .247, but still managed to get on base at a .333 percentage. His slugging percentage was an impressive .465 which made for a strong OPS of .798. He managed to hit 20 home runs and 21 doubles in just 381 at bats in his role as utility corner outfielder and corner infielder, which is the role that he has primarily filled since breaking into the league as Rookie of the Year for Toronto in 2002. Statistically, his rookie year remains his career best but he can be counted on for an OBP of around .330 and a slugging percentage of around .440, which would both be around his career average.
Ok, so what does this all mean? Eric Hinske at a maximum of $1.5 million for one year is a very good signing for the Pirates, one that I recommended here a couple of months ago. Hinske has floated around under the radar for years, but has performed well every season. He is instantly the Pirates second best outfielder going into the season (though that could change by the end of the season) and if he is somehow not effective, then he will likely not reach his playing time incentives and cost the team less than a million dollars. All in all, a very low risk manoeuver with a high reward. The important thing to note is that Hinske has not been an everyday player since 2005, his last year with Toronto. The Red Sox used him has a fourth outfielder and occasional first or third baseman, and in each of his two years in Boston he played well but only registered 277 and 186 at bats. Last year he saw more time with 381 at bats, higher than either of his years in Boston but still not close to the time he was seeing in Toronto. Hinske does not hit lefties well, though he has hardly registered any at bats against them in his platoon role each of the past three years. I would strongly recommend and expect Hinske to start opening day in left field.
Considering Hinske’s struggles against left handed pitching, the minor league contract that Craig Monroe signed last month could be valuable. Monroe has not played well for several years now, and it would not shock me to see him released by mid-season, but he does have the potential to be the veteran right-handed hitter with some potential for power that would compliment Hinske nicely in left or right field. If he could hit even .240 and hit 12 homers it would be a surprise out of a fourth outfielder playing primarily against lefties (there are only a few lefty starters projected to be in the rotation among the NL Central, and these include the likes of Wandy Rodriguez, Mike Hampton, and Manny Parra) and would make a nice platoon player with Hinske, or even Nyjer Morgan, Brandon Moss, or Steven Pearce.
So then, what about the rest of the outfield? In center, of course, will be the young stud Nate McLouth. Last year, McLouth hit 26 homers, stole 23 bases, batted .276 and had an OPS of .853. In addition he earned a Gold Glove, so you know his defense is impeccable to earn the award on a 60ish win Pittsburgh team.
The other corner outfield position may be up in the air among Morgan, Moss, and Pearce. A few weeks back, the Gazette reported that the job is Brandon Moss’s providing he is healthy, and went on to say that he looked good in batting practice. This is encouraging and would be a great story heading into the season, as at the end of last year it was rumored that he had structural damage in his knee that threatened his career. Evidently, the surgery he required in October was not as extensive as initially thought, and he is confident that he will be ready for opening day. Last year in a half season with the Pirates (after coming over from Boston in the Jason Bay deal) Moss played pretty well, hitting .246 and slugging .436 with eight homers; almost half of his hits were for extra bases. His strikeouts were high and he did not walk much, yielding only a .304 on base percentage, but these are numbers we can expect to level out with more experiece, and his OBP was considerably higher in AAA Pawtucket each of the past two years. If he really is healthy, he could be a decent starting option in right field with somewhere between 15 and 20 home run power, decent speed on the bases - though not a true stolen base threat - and as high as a .280 average this year.
The other outfielders likely to break camp on the major league squad are Nyjer Morgan and Steven Pearce. Morgan hit for a solid average for the season in limited action last year, including playing very well in August and September after a slow start. His slugging percentage has never been too high, but he did show flashes down the stretch and is reported to have shown up to camp in great shape having added a lot of muscle. Hopefully this will translate to some more extra base hits this year, as last year he had only 13 doubles in just 58 games. He won’t hit home runs but he is a legitimate base stealer and should be good for a good number of doubles. He is 28 this year, and with some experience, a good second half last year, and showing up with more muscle he should be coming into his own. It would not be surprising to see him earn a bulk of the playing time if Moss or Hinske don’t pan out.
Steven Pearce will be 26 just before opening day, and has played sparingly in the past two years in Pittsburgh appearing in just 60 games. He played well in September for the Pirates, but struggled big time in Fall ball in Mexico. He has yet to show much power at any level, even in Inianapolis where he spent the bulk of the past couple of years. His pedigree shows that he can’t be expected to play great defense or hit for a high average, so he will have to show 20 or 30 homer power in order to get every day playing time in the majors.
Coming up in the minors are Andrew McCutchen who is a personal favorite, who I hope will be seeing significant time in Pittsburgh by the end of the year. Behind him is still young but erratic Jose Tobata, who will have to start in AA Altoona as he is blocked by McCutchen.
Keep in mind, different sources have different projections, and camp and spring training are still before us. ESPN has Morgan starting in right and Moss in left, with Hinske at third. Rotoworld tends to agree with me but believes Pearce will start in left. I see the outfield on opening day as Hinske in left, McLouth in center, and Moss in right. I could see Monroe getting some starts in left or right in a platoon type of situation with Hinske, Morgan as being the best 4th outfielder if Monroe continues his descent into ineffectuality, and Pearce as an insurance policy who can hopefully develop the power we’ve been hoping for. A lot will depend on who has developed better in the offseason between Pearce and Morgan. I also like the idea of McCutchen making it to the majors well before the All-Star break, and Tobata getting a chance to display some consistency in Altoona and Indianapolis.
We’ll look into the bullpen next, continue with signing and news updates, and look into the near 20 year slump endured in Pittsburgh and the history of this failure.
February 6th, 2009 at 6:42 pm
I look for Morgan to start in left, and Moss in right. McClouth obviously will be in center. Hinske is a great pick up for the Bucs, and I expect to see starting two or three days a week and as a regular late inning pinch hitter on most of his off days. But Hinske’s presence in the line-up does not have the potential to turn the Pirates into a winning team the way a successful Morgan does as a lead off man, if he can hit .280 or above.
With Pierce, Tabata and McCutcheon waiting in the wings, I suspect this will be McClouth’s last Spring Training as a Pirate. This is okay though, because I think he has already peaked. McClouth will be gone by the trade deadline this year. He will continue to be a great defensive player, but I don’t see McClouth ever improving much upon his offensive success last year. Moss, however, will likely hit 30-35 HRs by 2010.
A line-up with Morgan, one of the speediest players in the major leagues as a lead-off hitter, followed by a healthy Sanchez, McClouth and Doumit and Moss should score a lot of first inning runs. A lot depends upon Morgan’s ability to be patient at the plate, draw a lot of walks, hit singles and steal bases. I think if you are pulling for Hinske to start over Morgan, you’re pulling for another 60 win season.
I look for the Bucs to surprise a lot of people this year. Snell, Gorzolanny and Maholm will have good years. I look for Karstens and Ohlendorf to earn the jobs as 4 and 5 starters.
On a side note, I also predict Ronnie Paulino at Philadelphia will make us wonder whether Russell was terribly mistaken for letting him go last year, as he and Doumit will have roughly equally productive years in 2009.
my opinion, worth what you paid for it,
RatsLinger
February 10th, 2009 at 6:04 pm
Ratslinger,
I appreciate your input, a lot of that is well-founded. I could definitely see Morgan starting in left and leading off. Indeed other outlets have suggested as much. He hit well in the lead off position last year, batting .312 and getting on-bast at a .356 mark, and this would open allow McLouth to move to batting third, where he probably should be. If Morgan can hit as well as he did last year in limited time, and he is actually in as good of shape as he reportedly showed up in, then that may be a viable option. I was assuming that he would lead off to start the season, but Morgan leading off in left, Sanchez batting second, McLouth third, LaRoche fourth is definitely a possibility. Morgan will have to learn to be more patient if he gets the leadoff job on opening day, though he could certainly provide a lot of spark, and if that is the case I will gladly admit you’re right.
I have been partial to Hinske because of his ability to get on base and hit for power consistently throughout his career for teams deeper than the 09 Pirates. I like him to bat 6th in this line up, maybe second depending on Sanchez. He did hit 20 homers in limited time last year, and has always shown the ability to contribute to the offense and fly under the radar. “I think if you are pulling for Hinske to start over Morgan, you’re pulling for another 60 win season.” Well, clearly that’s not true..no one is pulling for that; and it’s hard for me to see the difference between Hinske and Morgan - even if it proves significant in Morgan’s favor - to affect the overall performance of the team to such a degree that it will be the reason for a 60 win season. Maybe the Hinske platoon could move over to right in place of Moss if he proves ineffective. I would be much quicker to put the onus of a bad team on the shoulders of Jack Wilson than the bargain-buy one year deal that Hinske got
This very well could be McLouth’s last year as a Pirate if the right deal comes along. However, he won’t be a free agent until 2012, allowing the team to find the right deal or allow him/the others to develop in the mean time. I would rather see Pearce go for a slightly above average bat or veteran pitcher, than to see McLouth go in the middle of this season. I’m not sure that he has peaked yet, and in a better line up his RBI totals would be huge. His numbers have steadily increased over the early part of his career, and he will be 27 for the entire 2009 season.
As for Moss, he could certainly develop further and be an impact player by next year, but personally I don’t think he is a 30-35 homer type of guy. His highest total in the minors was around 15 or so, and hasn’t exactly showed that there is more power waiting. Granted he has reportedly been working hard to overcome his knee injury, and generally power maxes out around 28 years old and he will only be 25 this season.
Paulino?? I dunno, he will be competing for the backup catcher position in Philly, where Ruiz and Coste both probably have a better chance than him moving forward. In addition the Pirates got Jaramillo in exchange, a younger catcher who may do the back-up job just fine. I agree that Doumit may not perform as well as last year, but his numbers were very good and he did take a discount to stay with the Pirates.
April 12th, 2009 at 8:38 pm
So far, you’ve got to love the way Morgan and Wilson are getting it done! How about Wilson’s catch and toss on the double play in the eighth today, and then the TRIPLE play in the ninth!!!?
Go BUCS!!!
Maybe we need Hinske playing 3rd?