Another Pirate-Friendly Deal

 When the Pirates announced the extension of Nate McLouth, it came as a surprise. Previous reports throughout the fall and winter insisted that the two sides were not close on terms to buy out his remaining years of arbitration. Instead, they were able to come together for a deal to do just that. The deal is very much back-loaded, as he will receive $2 million in 2009,$4.5 million next year, and $6.5 million in 2011. The deal also comes with a team option for 2012 worth $10.65 million, though I certainly doubt that any circumstance will arise in which the Pirates would exercise that. Instead, the buy out will be $1.25 million; the same as his signing bonus.

The Pirates will be hoping that McLouth can build on or at least equal last year’s career year, but even if he regresses slightly to his still impressive 2007, $2 million is quite a bargain. His VORP last year was 22nd in the majors, higher than the likes of Brian Roberts, Nick Markakis, and even Manny Ramirez. Roberts will make $8 million this year, and we all know about Manny’s contract demands.

The best comparison is with Markakis. The two outfielders have almost equal experience, with McLouth having played in 29 fewer  career games, and both have showed trends towards improvement in their brief careers. Markakis has a slight edge in batting statistics, with his OBP/SLG/OPS splits at a career level of .375/.476/.851; marginally higher than McLouth’s .338/.461/.799. Similarly Markakis owns slightly higher numbers in hits, extra base hits, and homers for his career as well. These things may level out if McLouth continues to raise his batting average, as that accounts for most of the difference in OBP. Regardless, the higher numbers for Markakis are indeed slight, but still undeniable. However, McLouth’s defense is among the best in either league. Defense has been a hot commodity among GM’s recently; suddenly it is playing a more significant role in contract amounts and which free agents are most appealing. In addition McLouth is speedier on the base paths and is a 25-30 stolen base threat with a very good percentage, Markakis does not pose such a threat.

So, what does this all mean? Well, I’m inclined to give the edge to Markakis as a better player at this point given his batting numbers, pedigree, and younger age (McLouth is 2 years older). However, at this point in their careers the difference is almost negligible considering the other assets that McLouth possesses…especially the defense; and last year’s VORP (which does account for stolen bases) gives the edge to McLouth in 2008. Ultimately, no matter which side of the McLouth v. Markakis debate - which I just invented out of thin air - that you side on, the comparison is reasonable. The reason I go to these extents in such a comparison because both outfielders just signed extensions long term deals this past off-season. Markakis’s deal is for 6 years, and EACH YEAR he will be earning 50% more than McLouth over the course of his contract. McLouth’s guaranteed money over the next three years will total slightly over $15 million, whereas Markakis’s will be over $60 million in the next six years.

Obviously there is no real sample size here, but I like the comparison and it jumped out at me right away. Looking at the two deals for similar players it certainly looks as though the Pirates got more for their dollar than the Orioles. That is not to take anything away from them as Markakis could become a top guy for years to come.

All in all it seems as though the Pirates managed another organization-friendly deal, having locked up Maholm, Doumit, and now McLouth for the next several years through arbitration. Suddenly a new “core” has arisen, although I seem to remember a drastically different “core” that didn’t pan out so hot. I have been partial to McLouth these past couple of years and still have high hopes going forward. Considering this, even any McLouth detractors out there have to be pleased with this deal. He had a top year among outfielders in 2008 and actually signed a deal following what could be his career year at a young age that will give him only $2 million in the subsequent season and $4 million the next. Furthermore he is a sticking with the Pirates, and indeed at his press conference he stressed his pleasure at being able to stay with the team that drafted him. Clearly he was just saying all the right things, but it’s still nice to hear.

This entry was posted on Wednesday, March 11th, 2009 at 3:33 pm and is filed under Baseball, NL, NL-Central, Pittsburgh Pirates. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.