On Paper is a weekly segment where I take a look at the Lions’ weekly matchup and dissect each unit. At the end of each unit summary, instead of giving a typical “Advantage Lions” or “Advantage Opponent”, I award one of the teams with a point value of 1-5 (or give it a draw). These point values are based both on talent and the influence that this unit matchup will have on the game outcome.  A lot of my conclusions are based on the Lions opponent’s previous games.

Hope everyone had a great Thanksgiving.  I, for one, hung out with some great friends, had a delicious meal, and remember nothing of what happened in the football games that day.  But, luckily, the Lions face three playoff contenders in the next three weeks. So let’s get started with opponent #1, the Cincinnati Bengals.

Lions Pass Offense (19^th) vs. Bengals Pass Defense (16^th)

Bengals Opponent	Opponent’s Passing YPG	Passing Yards vs. Bengals	Opponent’s Season QB Rating	QB Rating vs. Bengals
Broncos	212.8	243	84.1	100.7
Packers	262.8	261	104.7	83.4
Steelers	257.0	276	96.8	95.6
Browns	133.2	269	51.4	68.8
Ravens	236.4	186	89.7	70.1
Texans	283.1	392	97.7	124.2
Bears	229.6	251	74.3	64.1
Ravens	236.4	195	89.7	48.3
Steelers	257.0	174	96.8	51.5
Raiders	130.1	183	53.8	73.5
Browns	133.2	100	51.4	51.3

The Bengals have been all over the place this year with their pass defense.  One week, they’re holding the Steelers 8^th ranked passing offense to 174 yards, another week they’re allowing the Texans to put up 400 yards on them.  This has pretty much been the tale of the Bengals all season.  At some points, they look unstoppable, but then they’ll lay eggs against the Raiders and Browns.

Though they rank 10^th in sacks, the Bengals pass rush hasn’t been the same since they lost Antwan Odom to injury.  They’ve only managed one sack in the past two games.

The Lions, however, have struggled to protect Matthew Stafford lately.  Stafford, who is still fighting a left shoulder injury, has been sacked six times in the last three games and hurried on nearly every passing play.

After his heroic performance two weeks ago, Stafford struggled on Thanksgiving Day (so I’m told).  He’ll likely have his hands full again this week, but he should get a little more time in the pocket against the Bengals defense.  Calvin Johnson does not look like he is 100% healthy out there, but, regardless, he is still a force to be reckoned with.  Cincy counters with a secondary full of no-names who are starting to make names for themselves.  Former Wolverine Leon Hall is establishing himself as a solid corner, while Johnathan Joseph and Chinedum Ndukwe are young players who continue to improve.

Because of the lack of pressure, the Lions may be able to get things going.  But because Cincy has a solid secondary, I expect the Lions to have a very average day through the air. Stafford will put up something around 200 yards, 1 TD and 2 INTs.  Draw.

Lions Run Offense (25^th) vs. Bengals Run Defense (3^rd)

Bengals Opponent	Opponent’s Rushing YPG	Rushing Yards vs. Bengals	Opponent’s Season Avg YPC	YPC vs. Bengals
Broncos	114.7	75	4.2	3.8
Packers	119.2	89	4.3	4.9
Steelers	115.4	102	4.2	3.6
Browns	97.5	146	3.6	4.4
Ravens	117.0	82	4.2	4.6
Texans	90.5	87	3.4	2.8
Bears	85.1	35	4.0	2.9
Ravens	117.0	55	4.2	3.2
Steelers	115.4	80	4.2	4.4
Raiders	104.3	92	4.0	3.8
Browns	97.5	58	3.6	3.2

This is not going to be good.

The Bengals defense has held 10 of their 11 opponents under their season average for rushing yards.  Led by one of the best linebacking corps in the NFL, the Bengals are allowing only 3.8 a carry (5^th).

Meanwhile, the Lions are averaging a meager 96.2 yards per game, and only seem to be getting worse.  The offensive line took a big hit when Stephen Peterman hit the IR a couple weeks ago, and Kevin Smith’s numbers have been free-falling.  He is now averaging 3.4 a carry and hasn’t reached 70 yards rushing since week 3.

Expect to cry about how Rey Maualuga should be a Lion at least five times in the first half.  Over/Under for the entire game is 17.  Bengals +3.

Bengals Pass Offense (21^st) vs. Lions Pass Defense (32^nd)

Bengals Opponent	Opponent’s Passing YPG Allowed	Passing Yards Allowed vs. Bengals	Opponent’s Season QB Rating Against	QB Rating Allowed vs. Bengals
Broncos	185.0	247	83.0	61.0
Packers	192.5	185	71.8	93.3
Steelers	213.5	183	81.1	76.7
Browns	233.4	230	92.8	73.1
Ravens	211.3	271	79.0	84.2
Texans	214.2	259	83.3	85.3
Bears	214.2	233	91.9	146.7
Ravens	211.3	224	79.0	91.0
Steelers	213.5	178	81.1	76.8
Raiders	215.8	207	86.1	75.4
Browns	233.4	110	92.8	80.2

The Bengals ranking really tells the whole story: this is a very average passing offense.  Their numbers are consistently close to the season averages of their opposing defenses.  This is a bit surprising given the talent of Carson Palmer and Chad Ochocinco (no, Microsoft Word, that is how you spell it).  However, outside of Ocho, the Bengals don’t really have much of a threat. Their other two receivers, veteran Laveranues Coles and youngster Andre Caldwell, don’t have as many yards combined as Chad does.

But all that really doesn’t matter, because we all know how terrible the Lions pass defense is.  For those that don’t know, I’ll restate the fact.  For those that do, please put your safety goggles on now.  The Lions rank last in the following categories: passing yards allowed, opponent’s QB rating, average yards per catch allowed, passing touchdowns allowed, opponents completion percentage, interceptions.

Ouch. Bengals +3.

Bengals Run Offense (7^th) vs. Lions Run Defense (19^th)

Bengals Opponent	Opponent’s Rushing YPG Allowed	Rushing Yards Allowed vs. Bengals	Opponent’s Avg YPC Allowed	YPC Allowed vs. Bengals
Broncos	110.0	86	3.9	3.2
Packers	89.1	151	3.8	4.4
Steelers	74.9	100	3.6	5.3
Browns	159.9	154	4.6	5.1
Ravens	97.6	142	3.5	4.2
Texans	120.0	46	4.8	2.7
Bears	125.6	215	4.3	4.8
Ravens	97.6	146	3.5	3.7
Steelers	74.9	61	3.6	2.1
Raiders	161.1	177	4.6	4.1
Browns	159.9	210	4.6	4.7

Hey look, something the Lions aren’t terrible at!

Oh crap, Cincy is ranked 7^th overall and have pretty consistently outperformed their opposing defenses this year.  And what’s that?  The Bengals get their leading rusher Cedric Benson back from injury this week?  Wonderful!

Though it’s not like the Bengals need Benson back, as their shiny new toy, Larry Johnson, ran all over the Browns last week, putting up 107 yards on 22 carries.

The Bengals have been on a tear lately, putting up 809 yards in the past five games (161.8 per game).  Though the Lions may slow them down a little, I’d expect the Bengals to exceed the Lions average of allowing 112.9 yards per game.  I’d put it somewhere around 150 yards for the Bengals on the ground.  Bengals +2.

Special Teams

Jason Hanson continued his downward spiral from his “automatic” status to his now “very reliable” status.  He’s missed a field goal in three of his past four games, but he remains a top kicker in the league regardless.  The Bengals’ Shayne Graham is also fairly reliable, only missing five of his 20 attempts this season.

In terms of kick returning, the Lions seemed to have finally stopped the bleeding with their kick coverage.  The Bengals don’t have a threat in Andre Caldwell, who is averaging only 18.7 yards per return.  But after his game-losing fumble against Oakland, the Bengals have now turned to rookie Bernard Scott to return kicks who only has 10 returns on the season, but is averaging a much better 32.5 yards per return with one touchdown.  However, I don’t see either side making a huge difference on special teams.  Draw

Overall

Cincinnati comes out with a +8 advantage, a pretty large number in “On Paper”.  The Bengals hold a distinct advantage when it comes to their run and pass offense and their run defense.  The Lions can only hope that Stafford comes out with some magic.  Given the health of Stafford and Megatron, I don’t see this happening.  The Lions don’t have much to play for, as they are one of four teams already mathematically eliminated from the playoffs.  Meanwhile, the Bengals currently hold a commanding two game lead in their division (though it’s really three games because of their 6-0 record in the division).  But the Bengals can’t afford to give up a game if they want the 2 seed in the AFC.  Look for the Bengals to come out hard and coast through the second half.  27-10 Bengals.

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This entry was posted on Saturday, December 5th, 2009 at 4:54 pm and is filed under AFC, AFC North, All Sports, Cincinnati Bengals, Detroit Lions, Football, NFC, NFC North. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can skip to the end and leave a response. Pinging is currently not allowed.