On Paper is a weekly segment where I take a look at the Lions’ weekly matchup and dissect each unit. At the end of each unit summary, instead of giving a typical “Advantage Lions” or “Advantage Opponent”, I award one of the teams with a point value of 1-5 (or give it a draw). These point values are based both on talent and the influence that this unit matchup will have on the game outcome.  A lot of my conclusions are based on the Lions opponent’s previous games.

Well, we’ve gotten to the point in the season where we pretty know exactly what to expect out of the Lions.  The team has established its identity as a bottom five team in the league.  At this point in the season, the goal is to improve the young guys and see what you have in players who haven’t gotten a lot of playing time.  With that in mind, Jim Schwartz decided to bench the injured Matthew Stafford in favor of Daunte Culpepper.  Though some want to see Drew Stanton given a shot at this point, seeing what Culpepper has left in the tank may be just as valuable.

What is most interesting about this matchup is the opponent: the Baltimore Ravens.  The Ravens (6-6) have been quite inconsistent this season, and can’t seem to make up their mind if they want to be a pretender or a contender.  Let’s see if they’ll contend against the Lions on Sunday:

Lions Pass Offense (20^th) vs. Ravens Pass Defense (15^th)

Ravens Opponent	Opponent’s Passing YPG	Passing Yards vs. Ravens	Opponent’s Season QB Rating	QB Rating vs. Ravens
Chiefs	167.6	177	74.6	116.1
Chargers	266.8	436	105.2	85.0
Browns	143.5	115	56.7	32.7
Patriots	301.6	258	96.4	100.8
Bengals	198.0	271	85.0	84.2
Vikings	260.2	278	108.8	136.9
Broncos	209.1	152	84.7	71.0
Bengals	198.0	224	85.0	91.0
Browns	143.5	99	56.7	23.5
Colts	302.8	299	101.7	85.3
Steelers	258.0	145*	98.4	60.6*
Packers	262.2	263	103.1	87.8

*Dennis Dixon started

At this point I’d normally be dooming the Lions as Culpepper is going to start this week, but lately Stafford has been just as ineffective lately.  The Lions offense has scored 23 points in the past two games, and six of those were scored in garbage time.

Meanwhile, the Ravens’ pass defense has been pretty tough to figure out.  Basically, it looks as if they’ve held bad passing offenses to bad numbers, and good offenses usually succeed. The Ravens have been surprisingly poor in generating pressure, as they’ve only managed 22 sacks this year (26^th).

The Lions may get another break as Ed Reed could possibly be out this week with a groin injury.  Still, the Ravens secondary is pretty solid, as they rank 6^th in interceptions (14).  Amazingly, nine different Ravens have tallied an interception this season already.

Calvin Johnson seems to finally be hitting his stride.  In his past three games, CJ has put up 294 total yards and a touchdown in each game.  He’ll test the Baltimore secondary, but this matchup is too much of a tossup to award either team points. Draw.

Lions Run Offense (25^th) vs. Ravens Run Defense (6^th)

Ravens Opponent	Opponent’s Rushing YPG	Rushing Yards vs. Ravens	Opponent’s Season Avg YPC	YPC vs. Ravens
Chiefs	98.0	29	3.7	1.7
Chargers	88.7	53	3.3	2.5
Browns	98.9	71	3.7	3.1
Patriots	113.0	85	4.0	2.8
Bengals	133.9	142	4.0	4.2
Vikings	123.6	167	4.2	5.4
Broncos	125.6	66	4.4	3.5
Bengals	133.9	146	4.0	3.7
Browns	98.9	86	3.7	3.3
Colts	87.7	76	3.8	3.0
Steelers	116.8	153	4.3	4.0
Packers	117.1	94	4.3	3.5

At the beginning of the season, it seemed like Baltimore’s run defense was unstoppable.  But, as it turns out, Baltimore had played some of the worst run offenses in the league.  Again, there is some inconsistency here for the Ravens.  The Bengals seem to have their number, and the Vikings and Steelers have both tasted success against this defense.  However, nearly everyone else struggled to reach the century mark.

The Ravens defense is obviously led by the scariest person in the NFL, Ray Lewis.  If I had a poster of him up in my room, I would never get hiccups again.  Running backs all over the league leave their night lights on when going to sleep in the hope that the Ray Lewis under their bed doesn’t attack them at night.  If you want to kick an internet addiction set this picture as your background and you’ll be too afraid to touch your computer ever again.  Actually, don’t do that.  Visit this site every day.

Kevin Smith, no doubt, has been tossing and turning in bed this week.  Smith had a much better game last week after a horrid effort on Thanksgiving.  Smith is still averaging only 3.5 a carry and 56.5 rushing yards a game.  I’d be very surprised if his numbers were much higher or lower than that for Sunday.  Ravens +1.

Ravens Pass Offense (13^th) vs. Lions Pass Defense (32^nd)

Ravens Opponent	Opponent’s Passing YPG Allowed	Passing Yards Allowed vs. Ravens	Opponent’s Season QB Rating Against	QB Rating Allowed vs. Ravens
Chiefs	250.8	307	94.2	95.8
Chargers	204.4	190	82.9	96.6
Browns	246.1	342	96.9	111.8
Patriots	214.0	264	81.8	78.7
Bengals	211.5	186	73.7	70.1
Vikings	227.2	386	91.2	109.2
Broncos	180.2	175	76.6	109.2
Bengals	211.5	195	73.7	48.3
Browns	246.1	155	96.9	98.1
Colts	224.1	256	76.6	75.4
Steelers	219.6	289	84.0	100.8
Packers	186.3	137	67.7	27.2

Hey look, big surprise!  The Ravens are once again inconsistent! Put up 386 yards against a solid Vikings defense, then get stymied by the Browns for 155.  It would seem that Joe Flacco has suffered from somewhat of a sophomore slump, but in reality, he’s actually having a better year than his rookie year.  He’s completing three percent more of his passes, he’ll likely surpass his yardage total from last year this week, and he has already matched his TD numbers from last year.

Flacco has been protected pretty well.  He’s only been taken down 26 times (15^th).  Rookie Michael Oher leads the offensive line.  His tackle counterpart, Jared Gaither, is currently hobbled by a foot injury and is questionable.

The Lions will need to test these young linemen with creative blitz schemes. They successfully created some pressure last week, but that was an aberration for this defense.  If you want to know how bad the rest of this pass defense is, pick a stat, any stat.  Ravens +3.

Ravens Run Offense (17^th) vs. Lions Run Defense (19^th)

Ravens Opponent	Opponent’s Rushing YPG Allowed	Rushing Yards Allowed vs. Ravens	Opponent’s Avg YPC Allowed	YPC Allowed vs. Ravens
Chiefs	143.8	198	4.4	4.8
Chargers	117.8	130	4.4	4.1
Browns	154.2	142	4.5	5.1
Patriots	107.9	116	4.3	6.8
Bengals	81.8	82	3.8	4.6
Vikings	84.2	81	4.0	4.5
Broncos	108.7	125	3.9	3.6
Bengals	81.8	55	3.8	3.2
Browns	154.2	128	4.5	3.5
Colts	111.7	98	4.2	3.2
Steelers	77.8	132	3.6	4.6
Packers	87.2	66	3.6	3.1

Finally, something telling!  The Ravens have played the top four run defenses five times this year (Bengals twice) and have still managed to put up some pretty impressive numbers. It’s a bit surprising that the Ravens are only ranked 17^th overall, but they are slightly better at 14^th in terms of yards per carry (4.2).  They’re led by Ray Rice, who is the 10^th ranked rusher in the league.  You’d think from his size (5′8″) that Rice would be a speedster, but actually he’s incredibly strong between the tackles.  Rice hasn’t reached 100 yards since week four, but he splits a lot of his carries with Willis McGahee and Le’Ron McClain.

Detroit is holding their own in the running game.  Though they gave up 110 yards to Cedric Benson last week, they held him to a mere 3.1 a carry. The return of Sammie Lee Hill has helped a lot, but the work of Larry Foote and DeAndre Levy has been invaluable to this defense.  The Lions will also likely get Ernie Sims back this week (if they want him).  This should be a pretty good matchup.  Draw.

Special Teams

Jason Hanson continued to test my faith last week as he clanked one off the crossbar last week from 55.

The Ravens special teams threat comes in rookie returner Lardarius Webb, who ranks 8^th in kick return average (among those with 20 returns or more).  Webb has returned one for a TD, but is not a huge threat.  The Lions have improved their kick coverage as of late.  It has gotten to the point where I’m not squeezing the life out of the nearest fluffy animal every time the Lions kick off.

Once again, I don’t see any gamebreakers on either side for special teams.  Draw.

Overall

Welllllllllllllll.  I was not expecting this.  When I first saw the Ravens on the schedule, I envisioned something so violent and gory that I thought Quentin Tarantino was directing the nodes in my brain.  But, as it turns out, the Ravens came out with a weak +4 advantage after going through the “On Paper” wringer.  This doesn’t mean that the Lions are going to come out and give the Ravens the game of their life.  Baltimore, at times, have played like a team that could have a +8 or +10 advantage, but they just aren’t playing consistent enough right now.  Still, I think the Lions will keep it fairly close, even though it’ll never really feel like they’re in the game.  20-10 Ravens.

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This entry was posted on Saturday, December 12th, 2009 at 4:45 pm and is filed under AFC, AFC North, Baltimore Ravens, Detroit Lions, Football, NFC, NFC North. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can skip to the end and leave a response. Pinging is currently not allowed.