On Paper: Lions vs. Cardinals

On Paper is a weekly segment where I take a look at the Lions’ weekly matchup and dissect each unit. At the end of each unit summary, instead of giving a typical “Advantage Lions” or “Advantage Opponent”, I award one of the teams with a point value of 1-5 (or give it a draw). These point values are based both on talent and the influence that this unit matchup will have on the game outcome.  A lot of my conclusions are based on the Lions opponent’s previous games.

Lions Pass Offense (20^th) vs. Cardinals Pass Defense (28^th)

In terms of yardage, this does not look like a very solid Cardinals defense.  Nine of their 13 opponents put up more yardage against the Cardinals than their season averages.  However, yardage does not tell the story.  Arizona has held over half of their opposing quarterbacks to under their QB rating average.  What this usually means is that opponents are putting up a lot of yards in garbage time when Arizona has built up a solid lead.  This could also mean that while Arizona gives up a lot of yards, they tend to capitalize on mistakes by forcing interceptions.  This is confirmed when seeing that Arizona has 15 interceptions on the season (9^th).

What this means for Detroit is that they’ll probably put up a little more yards than their season average (202), but will likely turn the ball over a lot.  The likelihood of a couple interceptions is only increased by the fact that Daunte Culpepper will likely start the game again this week.  Culpepper showed quite a bit of carelessness last week, throwing up prayers to Calvin Johnson, who was often in double and triple coverage.

Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie leads the Arizona secondary and will likely be the one to cover Johnson.  Rodgers-Cromartie is known for his tremendous speed and that will no doubt help covering Megatron.  But Johnson’s talents don’t stop at speed; his incredible vertical leap will pose the biggest challenge for the 6’2″ corner.

Given how poor this offense has looked with Culpepper behind center, it’s hard to give them the advantage, even if they’re going up against the 28^th ranked defense.  The turnovers give Arizona the advantage.  Cardinals +1.

Lions Run Offense (26^th) vs. Cardinals Run Defense (17^th)

The Cardinals started off the season strong, only allowing 298 yards in their first five games (59.6 a game).  However, since then, they’ve given up over 100 yards in six of their following eight games. Though they rank 17^th overall, the Cardinals have played more than half of their games against bottom 10 run offenses.  This defense, while serviceable, is not dominant by any means.

Unfortunately for Detroit, just as things seemed to be turning around for their running attack, Kevin Smith went down for the season with a leg injury. Maurice Morris has been an adequate backup, but it remains to be seen whether he can carry the bulk of the load.  Rookie Aaron Brown is likely to see a significant amount of playing time as well.

I see the Lions performing very close to season averages at 95.5 yards and 3.8 a carry.  However, if they fall behind early (quite likely), I would expect somewhere around 60 total yards. Draw.

Cardinals Pass Offense (7^th) vs. Lions Pass Defense (32^nd)

There’s nothing good about this matchup for Lions fans.  Kurt Warner comes into town with a solid QB rating (93.5) and loads of talent at the receiver position.  The Lions could catch a break (they won’t) if Larry Fitzgerald is sidelined with a knee injury.  Fitzgerald is, in my opinion, the best receiver in the game, but Arizona doesn’t really need him.  Detroit, too, is hobbled by injuries.  Specifically, their only above embarrassing defensive back, Louis Delmas, has yet to practice this week and is questionable to play.

Arizona has only failed to put up at least 220 passing yards once this season, and have surpassed a 100 QB rating seven times already this season.

The only way Detroit has ever had a chance to win this matchup is with pressure on the quarterback.  Unfortunately, the Cardinals have only given up 22 sacks this season (5^th), while Detroit has only managed 21 (29^th).  Warner will break the 300 barrier and dominate the Lions on Sunday.  Cardinals +4.

Cardinals Run Offense (27^th) vs. Lions Run Defense (24^th)

In spite of being ranked a mere 27^th overall, the Cardinals running attack has averaged 5.0 a carry since week 8.  While it would seem that the Cardinals have figured out the solution to their early season woes, at least part of this statistical shift is because the Cardinals have faced worse run defenses in the second half of the season.  However, Beanie Wells has also taken a bigger role in this offense in the second half of this season, and he’s starting to become a real threat.  He and Tim Hightower are both averaging a very respectable 4.4 yards per carry.

Last week, the Detroit secondary decided they didn’t want to blow the game through the air, but on the ground instead.  Safeties were blowing tackles like they were balloons, and the linebackers were nowhere to be seen.  While Baltimore’s run game is undoubtedly better than Arizona’s, my confidence in this unit has been broken beyond repair.  However, because I don’t think it’ll make or break this game, I’m only going to give Arizona a +1 advantage.

Special Teams

Arizona has the 4^th best kick return coverage in terms of return average.  But in terms of their own kick returns, they are middle of the pack (9^th).  Detroit is near the bottom in kickoff returns (29^th) and about average in coverage (22^nd).

For the first time since I’ve been a true Lions fan, I feel like we’re outmatched at the kicker position.  The Lions and Cardinals are at opposite ends of the spectrum.  Cardinal Neil Rackers is a young kicker (as far as kickers go, 33 is young) who ranks second in the league in field goal percentage (though he hasn’t had an attempt over 50 yards).  Lion Jason Hanson is dwindling towards the end of his career and is ranked 25^th in FG percentage.  Hanson has missed a field goal in five out of his last six games.  Hanson has always been a reliable kicker on a roster filled with disappointment and inconsistency.  His decline is one of the most depressing things about this season.  Cardinals +1

Overall

Arizona ends up with a fairly significant +7 advantage. However, there is really only one matchup that matters in this game.  The most likely outcome of this game is Kurt Warner putting this game away in the first half and coasting the rest of the way.  The Lions secondary is way too bad to even challenge Arizona’s talented wide receivers.  Be prepared with a backup game to watch on Sunday.  38-9 Cardinals.