On Paper: Lions vs. Ravens

On Paper is a weekly segment where I take a look at the Lions’ weekly matchup and dissect each unit. At the end of each unit summary, instead of giving a typical “Advantage Lions” or “Advantage Opponent”, I award one of the teams with a point value of 1-5 (or give it a draw). These point values are based both on talent and the influence that this unit matchup will have on the game outcome.  A lot of my conclusions are based on the Lions opponent’s previous games.

Well, we’ve gotten to the point in the season where we pretty know exactly what to expect out of the Lions.  The team has established its identity as a bottom five team in the league.  At this point in the season, the goal is to improve the young guys and see what you have in players who haven’t gotten a lot of playing time.  With that in mind, Jim Schwartz decided to bench the injured Matthew Stafford in favor of Daunte Culpepper.  Though some want to see Drew Stanton given a shot at this point, seeing what Culpepper has left in the tank may be just as valuable.

What is most interesting about this matchup is the opponent: the Baltimore Ravens.  The Ravens (6-6) have been quite inconsistent this season, and can’t seem to make up their mind if they want to be a pretender or a contender.  Let’s see if they’ll contend against the Lions on Sunday:

Lions Pass Offense (20^th) vs. Ravens Pass Defense (15^th)

*Dennis Dixon started

At this point I’d normally be dooming the Lions as Culpepper is going to start this week, but lately Stafford has been just as ineffective lately.  The Lions offense has scored 23 points in the past two games, and six of those were scored in garbage time.

Meanwhile, the Ravens’ pass defense has been pretty tough to figure out.  Basically, it looks as if they’ve held bad passing offenses to bad numbers, and good offenses usually succeed. The Ravens have been surprisingly poor in generating pressure, as they’ve only managed 22 sacks this year (26^th).

The Lions may get another break as Ed Reed could possibly be out this week with a groin injury.  Still, the Ravens secondary is pretty solid, as they rank 6^th in interceptions (14).  Amazingly, nine different Ravens have tallied an interception this season already.

Calvin Johnson seems to finally be hitting his stride.  In his past three games, CJ has put up 294 total yards and a touchdown in each game.  He’ll test the Baltimore secondary, but this matchup is too much of a tossup to award either team points. Draw.

Lions Run Offense (25^th) vs. Ravens Run Defense (6^th)

At the beginning of the season, it seemed like Baltimore’s run defense was unstoppable.  But, as it turns out, Baltimore had played some of the worst run offenses in the league.  Again, there is some inconsistency here for the Ravens.  The Bengals seem to have their number, and the Vikings and Steelers have both tasted success against this defense.  However, nearly everyone else struggled to reach the century mark.

The Ravens defense is obviously led by the scariest person in the NFL, Ray Lewis.  If I had a poster of him up in my room, I would never get hiccups again.  Running backs all over the league leave their night lights on when going to sleep in the hope that the Ray Lewis under their bed doesn’t attack them at night.  If you want to kick an internet addiction set this picture as your background and you’ll be too afraid to touch your computer ever again.  Actually, don’t do that.  Visit this site every day.

Kevin Smith, no doubt, has been tossing and turning in bed this week.  Smith had a much better game last week after a horrid effort on Thanksgiving.  Smith is still averaging only 3.5 a carry and 56.5 rushing yards a game.  I’d be very surprised if his numbers were much higher or lower than that for Sunday.  Ravens +1.

Ravens Pass Offense (13^th) vs. Lions Pass Defense (32^nd)

Hey look, big surprise!  The Ravens are once again inconsistent! Put up 386 yards against a solid Vikings defense, then get stymied by the Browns for 155.  It would seem that Joe Flacco has suffered from somewhat of a sophomore slump, but in reality, he’s actually having a better year than his rookie year.  He’s completing three percent more of his passes, he’ll likely surpass his yardage total from last year this week, and he has already matched his TD numbers from last year.

Flacco has been protected pretty well.  He’s only been taken down 26 times (15^th).  Rookie Michael Oher leads the offensive line.  His tackle counterpart, Jared Gaither, is currently hobbled by a foot injury and is questionable.

The Lions will need to test these young linemen with creative blitz schemes. They successfully created some pressure last week, but that was an aberration for this defense.  If you want to know how bad the rest of this pass defense is, pick a stat, any stat.  Ravens +3.

Ravens Run Offense (17^th) vs. Lions Run Defense (19^th)

Finally, something telling!  The Ravens have played the top four run defenses five times this year (Bengals twice) and have still managed to put up some pretty impressive numbers. It’s a bit surprising that the Ravens are only ranked 17^th overall, but they are slightly better at 14^th in terms of yards per carry (4.2).  They’re led by Ray Rice, who is the 10^th ranked rusher in the league.  You’d think from his size (5’8″) that Rice would be a speedster, but actually he’s incredibly strong between the tackles.  Rice hasn’t reached 100 yards since week four, but he splits a lot of his carries with Willis McGahee and Le’Ron McClain.

Detroit is holding their own in the running game.  Though they gave up 110 yards to Cedric Benson last week, they held him to a mere 3.1 a carry. The return of Sammie Lee Hill has helped a lot, but the work of Larry Foote and DeAndre Levy has been invaluable to this defense.  The Lions will also likely get Ernie Sims back this week (if they want him).  This should be a pretty good matchup.  Draw.

Special Teams

Jason Hanson continued to test my faith last week as he clanked one off the crossbar last week from 55.

The Ravens special teams threat comes in rookie returner Lardarius Webb, who ranks 8^th in kick return average (among those with 20 returns or more).  Webb has returned one for a TD, but is not a huge threat.  The Lions have improved their kick coverage as of late.  It has gotten to the point where I’m not squeezing the life out of the nearest fluffy animal every time the Lions kick off.

Once again, I don’t see any gamebreakers on either side for special teams.  Draw.

Overall

Welllllllllllllll.  I was not expecting this.  When I first saw the Ravens on the schedule, I envisioned something so violent and gory that I thought Quentin Tarantino was directing the nodes in my brain.  But, as it turns out, the Ravens came out with a weak +4 advantage after going through the “On Paper” wringer.  This doesn’t mean that the Lions are going to come out and give the Ravens the game of their life.  Baltimore, at times, have played like a team that could have a +8 or +10 advantage, but they just aren’t playing consistent enough right now.  Still, I think the Lions will keep it fairly close, even though it’ll never really feel like they’re in the game.  20-10 Ravens.

On Paper: Lions vs. Bengals

On Paper is a weekly segment where I take a look at the Lions’ weekly matchup and dissect each unit. At the end of each unit summary, instead of giving a typical “Advantage Lions” or “Advantage Opponent”, I award one of the teams with a point value of 1-5 (or give it a draw). These point values are based both on talent and the influence that this unit matchup will have on the game outcome.  A lot of my conclusions are based on the Lions opponent’s previous games.

Hope everyone had a great Thanksgiving.  I, for one, hung out with some great friends, had a delicious meal, and remember nothing of what happened in the football games that day.  But, luckily, the Lions face three playoff contenders in the next three weeks. So let’s get started with opponent #1, the Cincinnati Bengals.

Lions Pass Offense (19^th) vs. Bengals Pass Defense (16^th)

The Bengals have been all over the place this year with their pass defense.  One week, they’re holding the Steelers 8^th ranked passing offense to 174 yards, another week they’re allowing the Texans to put up 400 yards on them.  This has pretty much been the tale of the Bengals all season.  At some points, they look unstoppable, but then they’ll lay eggs against the Raiders and Browns.

Though they rank 10^th in sacks, the Bengals pass rush hasn’t been the same since they lost Antwan Odom to injury.  They’ve only managed one sack in the past two games.

The Lions, however, have struggled to protect Matthew Stafford lately.  Stafford, who is still fighting a left shoulder injury, has been sacked six times in the last three games and hurried on nearly every passing play.

After his heroic performance two weeks ago, Stafford struggled on Thanksgiving Day (so I’m told).  He’ll likely have his hands full again this week, but he should get a little more time in the pocket against the Bengals defense.  Calvin Johnson does not look like he is 100% healthy out there, but, regardless, he is still a force to be reckoned with.  Cincy counters with a secondary full of no-names who are starting to make names for themselves.  Former Wolverine Leon Hall is establishing himself as a solid corner, while Johnathan Joseph and Chinedum Ndukwe are young players who continue to improve.

Because of the lack of pressure, the Lions may be able to get things going.  But because Cincy has a solid secondary, I expect the Lions to have a very average day through the air. Stafford will put up something around 200 yards, 1 TD and 2 INTs.  Draw.

Lions Run Offense (25^th) vs. Bengals Run Defense (3^rd)

This is not going to be good.

The Bengals defense has held 10 of their 11 opponents under their season average for rushing yards.  Led by one of the best linebacking corps in the NFL, the Bengals are allowing only 3.8 a carry (5^th).

Meanwhile, the Lions are averaging a meager 96.2 yards per game, and only seem to be getting worse.  The offensive line took a big hit when Stephen Peterman hit the IR a couple weeks ago, and Kevin Smith’s numbers have been free-falling.  He is now averaging 3.4 a carry and hasn’t reached 70 yards rushing since week 3.

Expect to cry about how Rey Maualuga should be a Lion at least five times in the first half.  Over/Under for the entire game is 17.  Bengals +3.

Bengals Pass Offense (21^st) vs. Lions Pass Defense (32^nd)

The Bengals ranking really tells the whole story: this is a very average passing offense.  Their numbers are consistently close to the season averages of their opposing defenses.  This is a bit surprising given the talent of Carson Palmer and Chad Ochocinco (no, Microsoft Word, that is how you spell it).  However, outside of Ocho, the Bengals don’t really have much of a threat. Their other two receivers, veteran Laveranues Coles and youngster Andre Caldwell, don’t have as many yards combined as Chad does.

But all that really doesn’t matter, because we all know how terrible the Lions pass defense is.  For those that don’t know, I’ll restate the fact.  For those that do, please put your safety goggles on now.  The Lions rank last in the following categories: passing yards allowed, opponent’s QB rating, average yards per catch allowed, passing touchdowns allowed, opponents completion percentage, interceptions.

Ouch. Bengals +3.

Bengals Run Offense (7^th) vs. Lions Run Defense (19^th)

Hey look, something the Lions aren’t terrible at!

Oh crap, Cincy is ranked 7^th overall and have pretty consistently outperformed their opposing defenses this year.  And what’s that?  The Bengals get their leading rusher Cedric Benson back from injury this week?  Wonderful!

Though it’s not like the Bengals need Benson back, as their shiny new toy, Larry Johnson, ran all over the Browns last week, putting up 107 yards on 22 carries.

The Bengals have been on a tear lately, putting up 809 yards in the past five games (161.8 per game).  Though the Lions may slow them down a little, I’d expect the Bengals to exceed the Lions average of allowing 112.9 yards per game.  I’d put it somewhere around 150 yards for the Bengals on the ground.  Bengals +2.

Special Teams

Jason Hanson continued his downward spiral from his “automatic” status to his now “very reliable” status.  He’s missed a field goal in three of his past four games, but he remains a top kicker in the league regardless.  The Bengals’ Shayne Graham is also fairly reliable, only missing five of his 20 attempts this season.

In terms of kick returning, the Lions seemed to have finally stopped the bleeding with their kick coverage.  The Bengals don’t have a threat in Andre Caldwell, who is averaging only 18.7 yards per return.  But after his game-losing fumble against Oakland, the Bengals have now turned to rookie Bernard Scott to return kicks who only has 10 returns on the season, but is averaging a much better 32.5 yards per return with one touchdown.  However, I don’t see either side making a huge difference on special teams.  Draw

Overall

Cincinnati comes out with a +8 advantage, a pretty large number in “On Paper”.  The Bengals hold a distinct advantage when it comes to their run and pass offense and their run defense.  The Lions can only hope that Stafford comes out with some magic.  Given the health of Stafford and Megatron, I don’t see this happening.  The Lions don’t have much to play for, as they are one of four teams already mathematically eliminated from the playoffs.  Meanwhile, the Bengals currently hold a commanding two game lead in their division (though it’s really three games because of their 6-0 record in the division).  But the Bengals can’t afford to give up a game if they want the 2 seed in the AFC.  Look for the Bengals to come out hard and coast through the second half.  27-10 Bengals.

On Paper: Lions vs. Packers – Thanksgiving Edition

On Paper is a weekly segment where I take a look at the Lions’ weekly matchup and dissect each unit. At the end of each unit summary, instead of giving a typical “Advantage Lions” or “Advantage Opponent”, I award one of the teams with a point value of 1-5 (or give it a draw). These point values are based both on talent and the influence that this unit matchup will have on the game outcome.

Lions Pass Offense (18^th) vs. Packers Pass Defense (7^th)

The Packers must have voodoo dolls of Calvin Johnson and Matthew Stafford.  The last time the two teams met, both players were out with injury.  This week, when the two meet on Thanksgiving, it looks like they will both be out again.

As we can see, without Stafford and Megatron, the Packers defense completely dominated the Lions.  Daunte Culpepper and Drew Stanton combined for three interceptions and failed to put one point on the board as the Lions got shut out 26-0.

Outside of their previous matchup, the Packers have been a solid against the pass.  They have held nearly every quarterback they’ve faced (that’s not named Brett Favre) to a low QB rating (ranked 7^th in QB rating against).

However, the Packers, too, have some significant injuries.  Cornerback Al Harris and linebacker Aaron Kampman were lost last week for the entire season. Both players contributed heavily to the pass defense, as Harris had two interceptions and five passes defended, while Kampman provided pass rush (3.5 sacks on the season).

However, without their two best offensive players, there’s not much hope for this matchup.  Charles Woodson is still too good, and Detroit has little depth at the receiver position.  I would expect numbers very similar to the previous matchup.  Packers +3.

Lions Run Offense (25^th)  vs. Packers Run Defense (4^th)

The Packers have held their past seven opponents well below their season rushing yard average.  This includes the week six matchup, in which the Packers held Kevin Smith to 61 yards on 15 carries.  Though the Lions exceeded their average yards per carry in that game, they didn’t run the ball much because they were behind early in that game.

Smith has yet to shake off his early struggles in the season.  He has not surpassed 70 rushing yards in a game since week three.   He has proven himself as a valuable receiving option, but his running ability is still under question.

Because I expect the Lions to fall behind early again in this game, I don’t see this matchup having much of an effect on the game.  I’d be surprised to see the Lions attempt more than 20 rushes this game, therefore it is a non-factor.  Draw.

Packers Pass Offense (7^th) vs. Lions Pass Defense (32^nd)

If there were any doubters that the Lions have worst pass defense in the league (maybe in history), they are now gone after Brady Quinn and Cleveland’s worst-ranked passing offense put up 4 TDs and a 133.1 passer rating against them.

Meanwhile, the Packers have beaten their opponents’ defensive averages nine out of ten weeks, in terms of passer rating.  Aaron Rodgers is fourth in the league in passer rating (102.6).

There’s really no point in analyzing this any further.  Rodgers lit up the Lions last time they faced, and the Lions’ secondary has actually gotten worse since because of injuries.  If you have Aaron Rodgers on your fantasy team, play him and bench everyone else.  You’ll still win by 100 points.  Packers +5.

Packers Run Offense (11^th) vs. Lions Run Defense (20^th)

When the two teams met in week six, I talked about how Ryan Grant wasn’t getting things done.  Since then, he’s averaged 95 yards per game, and 4.7 a carry.  He’s quietly bumped himself up to 9^th in the league in rushing yards.

These numbers are slightly inflated because in that time, the Packers have played some weak opponents.  As the chart shows, the Packers are actually performing very close to the averages of the opponents, in terms of YPG allowed.

Detroit’s run defense is equally mediocre.  The biggest issue with their defense is giving up big plays.  Detroit has given up the third most runs of over 20 yards (13).  Fortunately for Detroit, Grant does not have a run of over 40 yards this season, and only has five of over 20 yards.

I expect Green Bay to run the ball a lot after getting a big lead.  Grant will likely get around 30 carries and end up with around 110-120 yards overall.  That’ll be enough to run out the clock effectively, but it won’t be the deciding factor in the game.  Packers +1.

Special Teams

Sorry, it’s a short holiday week.  Special teams gets the axe.  Last time I called this matchup a draw, so I’m going to call it a draw again.

Overall

Packers +9. It’s probably actually worse than that.  Detroit has a ton of injuries on both sides of the ball and in crucial positions.  The Packers are a much better team than their 6-4 record suggests.  They rank 11^th or higher in all facets of the game.  Their four losses were to pretty decent teams: Minnesota, Minnesota, Cincinatti……um….Tampa.  However, in that Tampa game, the Packers actually dominated the Bucs in yardage.  The only reason they lost that game was because of turnovers and a blocked punt.

Stafford was gracious enough on Sunday to provide an incredibly entertaining game.  That proved to be enough of a distraction for the media to not bombard us with stories about taking the Lions off Thanksgiving for the billionth year in a row.  Unfortunately, after Thursday’s game, I’m sure writers all over the world will be beating that drum once again.

My advice, Lions fans: If you love spending time with your family, spend most of Thanksgiving with them and occasionally check in on the game.  If you hate your family, spend most of Thanksgiving with them and occasionally check in on the game.  And be thankful for last week (I’ve watched that video ten times now, no exaggeration).  31-6 Packers.